Michael Lawrence

Management Science and Operations Research · 1993–2015

A researcher in the Science corpus: 4 papers; trusts 1 researcher and is trusted by 1 researcher here, as inferred from the citation graph.

Subfields

• Management Science and Operations Research — 27 citations into it; #11,166 of 11,946 by trust here, #2,539 by citations

Whom Michael Lawrence trusts overall

Their strongest outbound trust, strongest first, inferred from their citations.

1. Spyros Makridakis
2. Gerd Gigerenzer
3. P. Asquith
4. Robert Fildes
5. C. Chatfield
6. Hal R. Arkes
7. Roman Krzysztofowicz
8. Ulrich Hoffrage
9. H. Booth
10. Ilan Yaniv

Who trusts Michael Lawrence overall

1. Robert Fildes
2. Mathias Drehmann
3. Sven F. Crone
4. Devon K. Barrow
5. Spyros Makridakis
6. James W. Taylor

Papers from Michael Lawrence's perspective

Ordered by how strongly the researchers Michael Lawrence trusts endorse each paper. Same corpus, a different order for every researcher.

1. Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography
2. Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts☆
3. The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition
4. Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence.
5. Prediction Intervals for Time-Series Forecasting
6. Density Forecasting: A Survey
7. Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting
8. Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review
9. Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting
10. The State of Macroeconomic Forecasting

Their papers

• Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning (2009) — 456 citations
• Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years (2006) — 532 citations
• Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative (2015) — 170 citations
• The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study (1993)