Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting

By Hal R. Arkes. 2001

150 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, General Decision Sciences, Management Science and Operations Research

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/77226b1994ef5ce1e60952c543a9a76dfc624a65

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Citations in the corpus

Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years (2006, background): “In summarising this literature in 1983, Armstrong concluded that management forecasts of EPS (judgment) were more accurate than analysts’ forecasts (judgement), which were more accurate than those of statistical models. The substantial domain (inside) knowledge that management possessed enabled thei”
Forecasting Decisions in Conflict Situations: A Comparison of Game Theory, Role-playing, and Unaided Judgement (2002, background): “Arkes (2001) examined the Although judgement may be adequate for evidence and concluded that experience often predicting decisions made in routine conflicts, leads forecasters using unaided judgement to decision makers can be subject to serious ignore base rate data and shun decision aids to…”
Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique (2001, background): “Beach and Phillips (1967) evaluated the results of several studies using direct estimation methods. Test-retest correlations were all above 0.88, except for one study using students assessing odds, where the reliability was 0.66. Gigerenzer (1994) provided empirical evidence that the untrained mind ”
Two-stage dynamic signal detection: a theory of choice, decision time, and confidence. (2010, background): “An important and well-studied aspect of subjective probabilities is their accuracy (see Arkes, 2001; Griffin & Brenner, 2004; Koehler, Brenner, & Griffin, 2002; McClelland & Bolger, 1994).”