Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review

By H. Booth. 2006

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Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration (2008, methodology): “These methods are compared in Booth et al. (2006). Methods for forecasting fertility are less well developed. Fertility has proved difficult to forecast due to structural change, and estimates of uncertainty are highly dependent on the particular model. Using a parallel method to the Lee-Carter meth”
Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative (2015, positive): “Similar findings have been obtained in agriculture (Allen 1994); population (Booth 2006, and Keilman 2008); sales (McCarthy, Davis, Golicic, and Mentzer, 2006); and public transportation (Flyvbjerg, Skamris, Holm, and Buhl, 2005).”
Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility (2014, background): “To know if cohorts that have postponed childbearing will ultimately have fewer children, one needs to forecast, but forecasting fertility is notoriously difficult (Booth 2006).”
Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS (2012, neutral): “The Lee-Carter method has become the most widely applied model for making projections of age-specific mortality rates (Booth, 2006).”
Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods (2008, background): “For very short-term forecasting, individual expectations might be considered; such an approach has been used in fertility forecasting, though with limited success (see Booth, 2006).”