Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative

By Nigel Harvey, Robin Hogarth, Michael Lawrence, Barbara A. Mellers, Fotios Petropoulos, Steven P. Schnaars. 2015

170 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Management Science and Operations Research

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/003199c4503084619f7c39bed4a9c7c854cb91be

Citations in the corpus

• Explaining machine learning models in sales predictions (2017, unknown): “Armstrong et al. (2015) reviewed the academic work in the field of sales forecasting and concluded that due to sophisticated statistical procedures and despite major advances in forecasting methods, the forecasting practice has seen little improvement.”
• Forecasting: theory and practice (2020, unknown): “Wide support to the view that model simplicity improves forecasting performance is presented by Green and Armstrong (2015), in an introductory article to the special issue of Journal of Business Research “Simple versus complex forecasting”, as well as the results of M1 and M2 competitions…”