Intuitive evaluation of likelihood judgment producers: evidence for a confidence heuristic

By Paul C. Price, Eric R. Stone. 2004

233 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Finance, General Decision Sciences, Safety Research

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ae9c3ebdd815e93e03253e49ec5dc7ee4c92e4c3

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Citations in the corpus

Evidence on the Information Content of Text in Analyst Reports (2014, background): “It is also well documented in the psychology literature that people use a confidence heuristic; that is, they assume a more confident communicator to be more accurate, competent, and credible (Zarnoth and Sniezek 1997; Sniezek and Van Swol 2001; Price and Stone 2004).”
Cheap talk and credibility: The consequences of confidence and accuracy on advisor credibility and persuasiveness (2013, methodology): “The confidence heuristic maintains that people see confident advisors as more accurate, knowledgeable, and credible (Anderson, Brion, Moore, & Kennedy, 2012; Price & Stone, 2004).”
Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years (2006, background): “Finding complementary results, Price and Stone (2004) argued that the users of probability forecasts employed a dconfidence heuristicT, i.e., they used confidence as a cue to the forecaster’s knowledge and competence in making more categorically correct forecasts.”
Advice taking and decision-making: An integrative literature review, and implications for the organizational sciences (2006, background): “Further, Price and Stone (2004) found that judges even preferred overconfident advisors to appropriately confident advisors.”
The benefits of knowing what you know (and what you don’t): How calibration affects credibility (2008, background): “1 People do not trust others simply because they act confident (cf. Price & Stone, 2004; Thomas & McFadyen, 1995); rather, they trust that confident others have a basis for their confidence, unless proven otherwise.”
How Gullible are We? A Review of the Evidence from Psychology and Social Science (2017, background): “Messages expressed with greater confidence tend to be taken into account more than messages expressed less confidently (e.g., Price & Stone, 2004).”