Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)

By Eric Van den Steen. 2004

445 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, General Decision Sciences, Safety Research, Cognitive Science & Psychology, Economics & Operations Research

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Citations in the corpus

Taming the Noise in Reinforcement Learning via Soft Updates (2015, background): “This problem is akin to the “winner’s curse” in auctions [6, 7, 8, 9].”
The Entrepreneur's Choice between Private and Public Ownership (2006, unknown): “Morris (1995) shows that such a specification is consistent with Bayesian rationality, and many models, such as Allen and Gale (1999), Coval and Thakor (2005), Harrison and Kreps (1978), and Van den Steen (2004), permit heterogeneous priors.”
G-Learning: Taming the Noise in Reinforcement Learning via Soft Updates (2015, background): “This bias is the well known " winner's curse " problem in economics and decision theory [6] [7] [8] [9], and in the context of Q-learning it was studied before in [3] [12] [13] [14].”
Risk aversion vs. individualism: what drives risk taking in household finance? (2014, unknown): “Van den Steen (2004) argues that when individuals are overoptimistic about their abilities, they tend to overestimate the precision of their predictions, whereas in collectivist cultures, people are concerned with behaving properly and exert high self-monitoring.”
Incentives to Innovate and Financial Crises (2012, background): “…between private and public ownership (e.g. Boot, Gopalan and Thakor, 2006, 2008), the matching of assets and liabilities on bank balance sheets based on value added (e.g. Song and Thakor, 2007), “endogenous” optimism (e.g. Van den Steen, 2004), and the theory of the firm (e.g. Van den Steen, 2010).”
The Bright Side of Managerial Over-Optimism (2016, methodology): “For example, Van den Steen’s (2004) model leads to biased attribution of causality.”
A Model of Positive Self-Image in Subjective Assessments (2005, background): “The most closely related paper is by Van den Steen (2004). In Van den Steen’s basic model, an agent must choose from a finite number of actions.”
OVERCONFIDENCE, CEO SELECTION, AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE (2008, unknown): “Apart from the literature on corporate governance, our paper is also related to the economics of leadership (e.g., Hermalin (1998) and Van Den Steen (2004)), rank-order tournaments (e.g., Lazear and Rosen (1981) and Ramakrishnan and Thakor (1991)), overconfidence (e.g., Coval and Thakor (2005) and G”
Double Q-learning (2010, result): “This approach to approximate the value of the maximum expected value is positively biased, as discussed in previous work in economics [15] and decision making [16].”
Influence through ignorance (2007, background): “One might also wonder what would happen in this game if individuals start with different priors about the state of the world and therefore have different interpretations of the evidence generated (as, for example, in Van den Steen, 2004).”
Self-confidence and strategic behavior (2017, unknown): “Van den Steen (2004) shows how over-optimism can result if people have different priors.”
Relationship Banking, Fragility, and the Asset-Liability Matching Problem (2007, methodology): “Numerouspapers have employed heterogenous prior beliefs, including Allen and Gale (1999), Manove and Padilla (1999), Garmaise (2001), Kurz and Motolese (2001), Coval and Thakor (2005), Boot et al. (2006), and Van den Steen (2004) ; see Kandel and Pearson (1995) and Tagaki (1991) for empirical evide”