Greedy or needy? Land use and climate impacts of food in 2050 under different livestock futures

By E. Röös, B. Bajzelj, Pete Smith, M. Patel, D. Little, T. Garnett. 2017

317 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Abstract Both supply and demand side changes are necessary to achieve a sustainable food system. However, the weight accorded to these depends on one’s view of what the priority goals are for the food system and the extent to which production systems versus consumption patterns are open to change. Some stakeholders see the problem as one of ‘not enough food’ and focus on the need to sustainably increase supply, while others consider the resource demanding and ‘greedy’ consumption patterns of the Western world as the main problem and emphasize the need to shift diets. In this study global land use and greenhouse gas emissions are estimated for a set of scenarios, building on four ‘livestock futures’ reflecting these different perspectives. These scenarios are: further intensification of livestock systems; a transition to plant-based eating; a move towards artificial meat and dairy; and a future in which livestock production is restricted to the use of ‘ecological leftovers’ i.e. grass from pastures, food waste and food and agricultural byproducts. Two dietary variants for each scenario are modelled: 1) a projected diet following current trends and 2) a healthy diet with more fruits and vegetables and fewer animal products, vegetable oils and sugar. Livestock production in all scenarios (except the baseline scenario) was assumed to intensify to current levels of intensive production in North-Western Europe. For each scenario, several variant assumptions about yield increases and waste reductions were modelled. Results show that without improvements in crop productivity or reductions on today’s waste levels available cropland will only suffice if production of all protein currently supplied by animal foods is replaced by (hypothetical) artificial variants not requiring any land. With livestock intensities corresponding to current ones in North-Western Europe and with yield gaps closed by 50% and waste reduced by 50%, available cropland will suffice for all scenarios that include a reduction of animal products and/or a transition to poultry or aquaculture. However, in the scenario based on an extrapolation of current consumption patterns (animal product amounts and types consumed in proportions corresponding to the current average consumption in different world regions) and with livestock production based on feed from cropland, available cropland will not be enough. The scenario that makes use of pastures for ruminant production and food waste for pigs, uses considerably less cropland and could provide 40–56 kg per capita per year of red meat. However, such a livestock future would not reduce GHG emissions from agriculture on current levels. This study confirms previous research that to achieve a sustainable food future, action is needed on all fronts; improved supply and reduced demand and waste.

Subfields: Ecology, Environmental Engineering, Food Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/522189a2f0e488803618c3c0aa103eec687841cb

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Ecology

1. J. Aschemann‐Witzel
2. J. Fanzo
3. D. Little

In Environmental Engineering

1. J. Aschemann‐Witzel
2. J. Fanzo
3. D. Little

In Food Science

1. G. Ares
2. A. Giménez
3. J. Aschemann‐Witzel
4. J. Fanzo
5. S. Jaeger
6. Paula Varela
7. Leticia Vidal

Citations in the corpus

• Sustainable intensification of aquaculture value chains between Asia and Europe: A framework for understanding impacts and challenges (2017, background): “8.5 Broader sustainable development The challenge of feeding nutritious diets to a growing global population within planetary boundaries is a key objective of sustainable intensification of food systems in general (Foley et al, 2005; Roos et al 2017).”
• Healthy and Sustainable Diets and Food Systems: the Key to Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2? (2019, background): “Even if eating “higher status” ASF is not essential for optimal nutrition, does it matter ethically that people have inequitable access to foods that give them pleasure and social status?”
• Convenience or price orientation? Consumer characteristics influencing food waste behaviour in the context of an emerging country and the impact on future sustainability of the global food sector (2018, background): “Subsisting on current world resources requires both behaviour change and waste reduction (Röös et al., 2017).”
• Less meat, more legumes: prospects and challenges in the transition toward sustainable diets in Sweden (2018, unknown): “A transition toward less resource-demanding diets in Western societies, that is, diets containing less animal products and more plant-based foods, has been identified as one of the most efficient mitigation options to reduce environmental pressures from the food system (Röös et al., 2017) and to cur”
• The Challenge of Feeding the World (2019, background): “(2017) that number will be approximately 9–11 billion by 2050 [3] but the number is disproportionate in terms of territorial distribution as it is mostly based on urbanized environments [4].”