Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?

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Overconfidence and Underconfidence: When and Why People Underestimate (and Overestimate) the Competition (2007, background): “It turns out that people tend to predict that they will be better than others on easy tasks where absolute performance is high, but worse than others on difficult tasks where absolute performance is low (Hoelzl & Rustichini, 2005; Moore & Kim, 2003; Windschitl, Kruger, & Simms, 2003).”
Self-confidence and strategic behavior (2017, unknown): “Its prevalence depends on factors such as experience (Weinstein 1980) or task-difficulty (Kruger 1999; Hoelzl and Rustichini 2005).”
When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence (2013, background): “Such overconfidence persists even when the stakes are high and individuals have incentives to estimate their relative abilities accurately (Ehrlinger, Johnson, Banner, Dunning, & Kruger, 2008; Hoelzl & Rustichini, 2005; Williams & Gilovich, 2008).”
Not so Above Average After All: When People Believe They are Worse than Average and its Implications for Theories of Bias in Social Comparison (2007, unknown): “However, recent developments have called into question the conclusion that people believe that they are better than others (Blanton, Axsom, McClive, & Price, 2001; Hoelzl & Rustichini, 2005; Kruger, 1999; Moore & Kim, 2003; Windschitl et al., 2003).”