Overconfidence and Underconfidence: When and Why People Underestimate (and Overestimate) the Competition

By Don A. Moore, Daylian M. Cain. 2007

338 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Education, General Decision Sciences, Safety Research

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/28e90e6e1105bff85523273ce53cd2199461b03c

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In General Decision Sciences

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Citations in the corpus

INSIGHTFUL OR WISHFUL: Lawyers' Ability to Predict Case Outcomes (2010, background): “On performing hard tasks, people tend to perceive their performance as worse than it really is compared with that of others (Moore & Cain, 2007).”
Affordable loss: behavioral economic aspects of the plunge decision (2009, background): “For instance, Moore and Cain (2007) signifi cantly moderate the conclusions of Camerer and Lovallo (1999) regarding overconfi dence/reference group neglect; and Miner and Raju’s (2004) results contest Stewart and Roth’s (2001) regarding the long-standing hypothesis of preference for risk.”
Can Nervous Nelly negotiate? How anxiety causes negotiators to make low first offers, exit early, and earn less profit (2011, background): “Prior research has found that people tend to believe that they are below average in performing difficult skill-based tasks, such as negotiating (Moore & Cain, 2007).”
The Study of Bias in Entrepreneurship (2017, background): “When a task is easy, people choose to enter markets overconfidently because they believe that they are better than average (overplacement); when a task is difficult, they become underconfident about entering because they believe they are worse than average (underplacement) (Moore & Cain, 2007).”
Power and overconfident decision-making (2012, background): “…has repeatedly demonstrated that people tend to view themselves, the world, and the future more positively than is objectively warranted (e.g., but see Klayman, Soll, GonzalezVallejo, & Barlas, 1999; Dunning, Griffin, Milojkovic, & Ross, 1990; Dunning, Heath, & Suls, 2004; Moore & Cain, 2007).”
Advancing the Psychology of Entrepreneurship: A Review of the Psychological Literature and an Introduction (2016, background): “…by Huang, Frideger and Pearce (2013), which found that pitching a business idea with a non-native accent negatively influenced evaluators’ decisions to invest in a new firm, or an experiment testing conditions under which people may under- or overestimate their competition (Moore & Cain, 2007).”
True Overconfidence: The Inability of Rational Information Processing to Account for Apparent Overconfidence (2011, neutral): “We explain this finding by the egocentric nature of relative judgments (Kruger, 1999; Moore and Cain, 2007): subjects react more strongly to variations in their own performance than to possible variations in the performance of other participants.”