Markets as Information Gathering Tools

By Charles R. Plott. 2000

187 citations recorded by the source corpus.

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d67025fec04d7592c67543a582ed8e1218f43f3a

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In Economics and Econometrics

Citations in the corpus

Prediction market accuracy in the long run (2008, background): “…see Forsythe, Nelson, Neumann and Wright, 1992, and Berg, Forsythe, Nelson and Rietz, 2003 for more detailed descriptions), similar markets run in other countries (usually designed to predict election outcomes) and markets cited in Plott (2000) (designed to predict sales at a large corporation).”
LOGARITHMIC MARKETS CORING RULES FOR MODULAR COMBINATORIAL INFORMATION AGGREGATION (2012, background): “Markets created within Hewlett-Packard Labs beat official corporate sales forecasts 6 out of 8 times, and tied the other time (Plott, 2000).”
Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research (2008, background): “Forsythe, Nelson, Neumann and Wright (1992), Oliven and Rietz (1995) and Forsythe, Rietz and Ross (1999) all show that individual traders display considerable biases and often make mistakes in the largest and most accurate of the IEM markets.”
Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem (2002, methodology): “Arrow-Debreu securities were chosen as the instruments because of the aggregation success that they have exhibited in the laboratory (See Plott, 2000) for an example of the types of laboratory experiments that had been used to explore this issue.)”
Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets (2003, background): “Plott (2000) shows that prediction markets can be used to accurately forecast sales for a company.”