Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research

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Stock Market Volatility around National Elections (2008, unknown): “An analysis of 15 national elections in six different countries performed by Berg et al. (2005) reveals that the absolute error of polls in the week before the election was 1.”
Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War (2009, unknown): “Berg et al. (2001a,b) provide useful reviews of these findings. Additionally, Rhode and Strumpf (2005) report that the price impact from random $500 trades dissipates within 24 hours, suggesting that even fairly substantial noise trading is unlikely to move prices much from their equilibrium level.”
Has Economic Analysis Improved Regulatory Decisions (2008, background): “These markets frequently outperform both experts and opinion polls (Berg et al., 2003; Wolfers and Zitzewitz, 2004).”