Prediction market accuracy in the long run

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Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute (2014, unknown): “More systematic coding mechanisms using computer algorithms [100, 101] also have a limited time span, as do prediction markets [102,103].”
Forecasting: theory and practice (2020, background): “on markets, as eﬃcient aggregators of information, exploit both these issues to yield election forecasts. Several studies have proven the performance of these approaches (Wolfers and Zitzewitz, 2004; Berg et al., 2008; Erikson and Wlezien, 2012; Williams and 149This subsection was written by Jose M.”