Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets

By Joyce E. Berg, F. Nelson, Thomas A. Rietz, Henry B. Tippie. 2003

152 citations recorded by the source corpus.

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b886245406c2f87e39f38818c220d0d7ccbfbbe1

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

1. Charles F. Manski
2. Koleman Strumpf
3. Paul W. Rhode
4. Jörg Stoye
5. Susan Athey
6. T. Armstrong
7. Guido W. Imbens
8. Matthew A. Masten

Citations in the corpus

• Historical presidential betting markets (2004, background): “The average betting volume was over 200 times the maximum amount wagered in any election in the Iowa Electronic Market (Berg, Nelson and Rietz, 2003).”
• Combinatorial Information Market Design (2003, unknown): “For example, when compared to concurrent major opinion polls on U.S. presidential elections, the Iowa Electronic Market forecasts were more accurate 451 out of 596 times (Berg, Nelson, and Rietz, 2001).”
• Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets (2006, background): “vote (Berg and Rietz, 2003; Berg, Nelson, and Rietz, 2003 ).1”
• LOGARITHMIC MARKETS CORING RULES FOR MODULAR COMBINATORIAL INFORMATION AGGREGATION (2012, unknown): “presidential elections, were more accurate than major opinion polls in 451 out of 591 comparisons ( Berg, Nelson, & Rietz, 2001 ).”