Climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem

By M. Collins. 2002

187 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Oceanography

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d33fc3fc14304d40e67230ca7700932054e77179

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Atmospheric Science

In Global and Planetary Change

In Oceanography

Citations in the corpus

The forecast skill horizon (2015, background): “…predictability studies of the coupled atmosphere–ocean system ranging from highly idealized loworder systems (Vannitsem, 2014) to intermediate-complexity systems (Goswami and Shukla, 1991; Kleeman and Power, 1994) and finally to full atmosphere–ocean global circulation models (e.g. Collins, 2002).”
Statistical emulation of climate model projections based on precomputed GCM runs (2014, background): “The chaotic nature of the climate system means that changes in any initial conditions other than those of the deepest ocean are expected to produce essentially independent results after approximately a decade (e.g., Branstator and Teng 2010; Collins 2002; Collins and Allen 2002), so we believe that ”
What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting? (2012, background): “If skilful AMV predictions can be achieved, observations (e.g. figure 5) and modelling studies (Sutton and Hodson 2005, Zhang and Delworth 2006, Knight et al 2006, Dunstone et al 2011) suggest that important climate impacts, including rainfall over the African Sahel, India and Brazil, Atlantic hurri”
ENSO Modulation: Is It Decadally Predictable? (2014, methodology): “Past coupled GCM (CGCM) studies of ENSO’s potential predictability have used a ‘‘perfect model’’ approach, in which a particular model trajectory is reforecast using an ensemble of perturbed runs from the same model (Boer 2000; Collins et al. 2002; Collins 2002; Power et al. 2006).”
Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble (2012, background): “Instead, we focus on two well-known areas of low-frequency variability that have also been identified in long climate model runs (Collins 2002; Boer 2004; Pohlmann et al 2004).”
Environmental variability and fisheries: what can models do? (2008, background): “Surface air temperature of tropical oceans according to Collins (2002) and Collins et al. (2006) are potentially predictable by GCMs on a seasonal to interannual level, those of midlatitudes of the North Atlantic on a decadal time scale.”
Estimating the decadal predictability of a coupled AOGCM (2004, methodology): “Collins (2002) used the third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3) and found that SAT in the North Atlantic region is predictable on decadal time scales.”
Two Limits of Initial-Value Decadal Predictability in a CGCM (2010, background): “…ensemble experiments with perturbed initial conditions.1 Most previous studies have focused on the North Atlantic, particularly the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC; Griffies and Bryan 1997a,b; Collins 2002; Collins and Sinha 2003; Pohlmann et al. 2004; M. Collins et al. 2006).”
Model Error and Predictability over Different Timescales in the Lorenz '96 Systems (2003, methodology): “For either problem, the tool of choice is usually a physics-based model (Hunt 1999), which will be subject to errors both in the initial condition and the model (Collins 2002).”