Two Limits of Initial-Value Decadal Predictability in a CGCM

By Grant Branstator, H. Teng. 2010

168 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Oceanography

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/2c3004247b68d705ee31a90926d4c1097fe94b5a

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Citations in the corpus

The relationship between the ITCZ and the Southern Hemispheric eddy‐driven jet (2013, background): “[2010], Branstator and Teng [2010], and Meehl et al.”
Toward enhanced understanding and projections of climate extremes using physics-guided data mining techniques (2014, background): “Branstator and Teng (2010, 2012) studied decadalscale predictability from an ensemble of multiple initial condition runs using relative entropy.”
Two tales of initializing decadal climate predictions experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model (2012, background): “…time at which forced response predictability becomes more important than the initial value predictability was estimated by a recent potential predictability study (Branstator and Teng 2010) to be much shorter for the tropical Pacific (;2 yr) than for the midlatitude ocean regions (7–11 yr).”
A decadal prediction case study: Late twentieth-century North Atlantic Ocean heat content (2012, background): “…full-field initialization approach offers significant promise, although by considering only upper-ocean temperature in the North Atlantic we have admittedly chosen both the field and region expected to offer the greatest decadal-scale predictability in the climate system (Branstator and Teng 2010).”
Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches (2014, background): “The spread of states in prediction ensembles can also be used to determine for how long and by how much the predicted probability density function (PDF) is distinguishable from the corresponding climatological PDF, thus providing an estimate of predictability (e.g., Branstator and Teng 2010).”
What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting? (2012, background): “Furthermore, predictability studies show much less potential skill for PDV than AMV (Collins 2002, Boer 2004, Pohlmann et al 2004, Branstator and Teng 2010).”
A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments (2012, methodology): “Perfect model and diagnostic studies have been used to identify regions where potential predictability is located and to identify which variables might be the more predictable on decadal time scales (e.g. Collins et al. 2006; Boer and Lambert 2008; Branstator and Teng 2010; Msa-dek et al. 2010).”
Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CCSM4 (2012, unknown): “The latter is due to suggested potential predictability associated with AMOC and upper-ocean temperatures on decadal time scales (e.g., Griffies and Bryan 1997; Pohlmann et al. 2004; Msadek et al. 2010; Branstator and Teng 2010).”