What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting?
By Doug M. Smith, Adam A. Scaife, B. Kirtman. 2012
185 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Environmental factors, such as the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events, are important drivers of migration and displacement of people. There is therefore a growing need for regional climate predictions for the coming seasons to decades. This paper reviews the current state of the art of seasonal to decadal climate prediction, focusing on the potential sources of skill, forecasting techniques, current capability and future prospects.
Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/f184affc8ab08075b08971c9613cc8d8230b80ac
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
In Atmospheric Science
- A. Butler
- Adam A. Scaife
- A. Charlton-Perez
- Doug M. Smith
- E. Manzini
- M. Baldwin
- E. Gerber
- Stephen D. Eckermann
In Global and Planetary Change
- A. Butler
- Adam A. Scaife
- Doug M. Smith
- A. Charlton-Perez
- E. Manzini
- M. Baldwin
- E. Gerber
- Stephen D. Eckermann
Citations in the corpus
- Predictability of the quasi‐biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales (2014, background): “The inherent timescale of atmospheric processes is generally considered to be too short to aid climate prediction on seasonal to decadal timescales [e.g., Smith et al., 2012].”
- The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time‐scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts (2015, background): “In a recent review of the current state of seasonal and decadal forecasting skill of current operational NWP systems, Smith et al. (2012) highlighted the importance of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events as a potential source of additional predictability in long-range forecasts of cold winter…”
- Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere (2016, background): “The stratosphere is expected to contribute to this skill (Orsolini et al., 2011; Folland et al., 2012; Smith et al., 2012) due to its influence on the tropospheric NAO and AO, which is present in our model (e.g. Fereday et al., 2012).”