The forecast skill horizon

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The Teleconnection of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere (2019, background): “While deterministic predictability of the NAO in weather models is limited to a few days—though with a theoretical limit of about 3 weeks (Buizza & Leutbecher, 2015; Domeisen, Badin, et al., 2018)—on longer time scales, remote effects can improve statistical predictability.”
The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling (2020, background): “Although the theoretical limit of short-term weather forecasts is close to 3 weeks (Buizza & Leutbecher, 2015; Domeisen et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2019), weather predictions beyond 2 weeks have traditionally been challenging, as unpredictable 'weather noise' is large compared to the signals that…”
WeatherBench: A Benchmark Data Set for Data‐Driven Weather Forecasting (2020, background): “ of low and high pressure systems in the mid-latitudes, and tropical cyclones. Because of the chaotic nature of the atmospheric ﬂow, deterministic prediction is usually not possible beyond two weeks (Buizza and Leutbecher, 2015; Selz, 2019). However, it is possible to create probabilistic seasonal f”