Delusions of success. How optimism undermines executives' decisions.

By Dan Lovallo, Daniel Kahneman. Harvard Business Review, 2003

685 citations recorded by the source corpus.

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d1705ed0ac5c8eb5b86d7704a2ceab52e91eecf4

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Citations in the corpus

Organizational change: Motivation, communication, and leadership effectiveness (2009, background): “Volume 21, Number 4 / 2009 DOI: 10.1002/piq 79 2006), while leaders simultaneously curb their bias toward unrealistic optimism (Lovallo & Kahneman, 2003).”
Innovative Efficiency and Stock Returns (2013, unknown): “2 Lovallo and Kahneman (2003) emphasize that the inside view tends to promote overoptimism on the part of managers because they are required to weave scenarios, imagine events, or gauge their own levels of ability and control, all of which are susceptible to organizational pressure and cognitive…”
Resistance to Change: The Rest of the Story (2008, background): “Since decision makers have a bias toward optimism (Lovallo & Kahneman, 2003), change agent optimism may be genuine and not intended to be either deceptive or misleading.”
Is strategy being implemented through projects? Contrary evidence from a leader in New Public Management (2012, background): “Lovallo and Kahneman (2003) describe disappointing results with all types of large capital projects in areas as diverse as manufacturing, marketing, andmergers and acquisitions.”
CAUSAL AMBIGUITY, MANAGEMENT PERCEPTION, AND FIRM PERFORMANCE (2006, background): “They are keenly attentive to information about their own efforts and attributes, but less attentive to external information, objective data, or to the efforts and attributes of relevant others (Taylor & Brown, 1988; Kahneman & Lovallo, 1993; Lovallo & Kahneman, 2003).”
The Squander Sequence: Understanding Food Waste at Each Stage of the Consumer Decision-Making Process (2016, background): “Consumers also display a general optimism bias, such that they believe negative events are less likely to occur to them (vs. others; Lovallo and Kahneman 2003).”
Master of Puppets: How Narcissistic CEOs Construct Their Professional Worlds (2017, background): “Narcissists’ inability to delay gratification can lead to quick decisions, especially after strong feedback, and narcissists’ unbridled belief in and optimism about their own capabilities can also lead to questionable (Lovallo & Kahneman, 2003) and reckless (Hayward & Hambrick, 1997) decisions.”
Entrepreneurs' Optimism And New Venture Performance: A Social Cognitive Perspective (2009, background): “…certainly the entrepreneurs who participated in the present study, tend to be very high in optimism (e.g., Abdelsamad & Kindling, 1978; Busenitz & Barney, 1997; Cooper at al., 1988; Dosi & Lovallo, 1997; Fraser & Greene, 2006; Lovallo & Kahneman, 2003; Lowe & Ziedonis, 2006; Simon et al., 2000).”
When does entrepreneurial self-efficacy enhance versus reduce firm performance? (2008, background): “Therefore, we consider optimism as a potential moderator of the effects of entrepreneurial self-effi cacy since it can lead individuals to overestimate the probability that their efforts will result in positive outcomes—a particularly dangerous cognitive bias for entrepreneurs, because overconfi den”
Tourism, risk tolerance and competences: Travel organization and tourism hazards ☆ (2013, background): “Similarly, individuals overestimate their competence compared to their reference groups, usually their friends (Lovallo & Kahneman, 2003; Camerer & Lovallo, 1999) and this is likely to apply to tourism as in other domains.”