Does High School Matter? An Analysis of Three Methods of Predicting First-Year Grades

By Gary R. Pike, J. L. Saupe. 2001

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What Matters to Student Success: A Review of the Literature (2006, background): “High school grades have consistently been a strong predictor of first-year college grades, accounting for 25 percent to 33 percent of the variance (Pike and Saupe 2002).”
Academic Achievement in the First Year of College: Evidence of the Pervasive Effects of the High School Context (2010, background): “Past research has demonstrated how the interaction between students, high schools, and elite colleges can inhibit educational opportunity (Espenshade et al. 2005), while studies that have attempted to relate measures of school quality to attainment and economic outcomes have produced mixed results (”
Impact of degree program satisfaction on the persistence of college students (2007, background): “Most theories on college dropout focus on weak academic accomplishment and lack of social integration as the most important predictors of dropout (Spady 1971; Tinto 1975, 1987, 2000; Bean 1980; Pascarella 1980 ).”