Forecasting Decisions in Conflict Situations: A Comparison of Game Theory, Role-playing, and Unaided Judgement

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Findings from Evidence-Based Forecasting: Methods for Reducing Forecast Error (2006, background): “19 In a related study, however, Green (2005) asked game theorists to use game theory to make predictions for eight conflict situations.”
Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method (2009, unknown): “Green (2002) showed that when university students were first asked to role-play the participants in six heterogeneous conflict situations, their group-based resolutions of the conflict – or the group-based forecasts of the outcomes of these conflicts – were accurate.”