Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency

By Doug M. Smith, R. Eade, N. Dunstone, D. Fereday, J. Murphy, Holger Pohlmann, Adam A. Scaife. 2010

318 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Oceanography

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/54781699b3a2c5ef20c0892fad850b77c5cf0709

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Citations in the corpus

Predictability of the quasi‐biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales (2014, background): “The first set is from the UKMO decadal prediction system [Smith et al., 2007, 2010].”
Destruction, Disinvestment, and Death: Economic and Human Losses Following Environmental Disaster (2013, background): “Yet, while it is now possible to predict average storm frequencies for each storm season in a given basin with moderate skill (Heming and Goerss (2010); Smith et al. (2010)), these forecasts have almost no predictive power if one were to try forecasting locationspecific seasonal risk.”
Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss (2015, background): “…decadal prediction (DP) system [Yeager et al., 2012; Karspeck et al., 2014] is one of several nascent DP efforts [e.g., Pohlmann et al., 2009; Smith et al., 2010; van Oldenborgh et al., 2012; Chikamoto et al., 2013; Doblas-Reyes et al., 2013] that have demonstrated multiyear forecast skill…”
A decadal prediction case study: Late twentieth-century North Atlantic Ocean heat content (2012, background): “Furthermore, it has recently been demonstrated that skillful prediction of Atlantic tropical storm activity is dependent upon skillful prediction of SST in the Atlantic subpolar gyre (Smith et al. 2010; Dunstone et al. 2011).”
What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting? (2012, methodology): “However, skilful predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency out to years ahead have been achieved (Smith et al 2010).”
Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles (2011, methodology): “[6] The PPE seasonal re‐forecasts were generated with the UK Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) [Smith et al., 2007; Doblas‐Reyes et al., 2009; Smith et al., 2010] by perturbing poorly constrained atmospheric and surface parameters.”
Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches (2014, background): “1 (Smith et al. 2010; Vecchi et al. 2013).”
The BRIDGE HadCM3 family of climate models: HadCM3@Bristol v1.0 (2017, unknown): “been extensively used for scientific studies of future climate change (e.g., Stott et al., 2000; Johns et al., 2003; Smith et al., 2007; Stott and Kettleborough, 2002) and is heavily cited, including in the 2007 IPCC report (Solomon et al.”
A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts (2019, background): “The subpolar North Atlantic variability is critical for the multiyear predictability and prediction of the hurricane season vertical wind shear over the Atlantic hurricane MDR and associated tropical storm frequency (Dunstone et al., 2011; Smith et al., 2010).”