Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

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Predictability and prediction skill of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (2015, background): “In statistically consistent ensembles, the standard deviation of ensembles (i.e. ensemble spread) should match the root-mean square error (RMSE) of the ensemble-mean (e.g. Talagrand et al. 1999; Buizza et al. 2005; Eckel and Mass 2005; Weisheimer et al. 2009, 2011).”