Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis

By Robert Cervero, M. Hansen. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 2002

221 citations recorded by the source corpus.

This paper presents simultaneous models that predict induced travel demand and induced road investment using an array of instrument variables reflecting political, environmental, and demographic influences. From a panel data set consisting of 22 years of observations for 34 California urban counties, short-run elasticities are estimated. Both the Vehicle– Miles-Travelled model and the Lane–Miles model feature good statistical fits and highly significant parameter estimates. While the research found strong reciprocal relationships between road investment and travel demand, the elasticity estimates generated from simultaneous equation modelling were generally of a comparable magnitude to those of past single-equation studies.

Subfields: Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Transportation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/4ac7b0a11fc91c953072b972960f7c3c2ca5dc18

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Citations in the corpus

Density and Dispersion: The Co-Development of Land Use and Rail in London (2007, background): “, 2000) and simultaneous equation systems (Cervero and Hansen, 2002) to estimate both vehicle travel and lane capacity suggest that similar forces are at work affecting changes in both travel demand and infrastructure supply, and both studies find that increases in supply Granger-cause increases in ”
Road Expansion, Urban Growth, and Induced Travel: A Path Analysis (2001, unknown): “…than elasticities estimated in previous county-level studies drawn from California experiences that used lane miles as a direct predictor (e.g., Cervero & Hansen, 2002; Hansen et al., 1993; Hansen & Huang, 1996).7 It is also smaller than induced-travel elasticities estimated using…”
Does traffic congestion reduce employment growth (2009, result): “The evidence for this inhibiting effect is striking, considering other research suggesting that road building induces demand for driving (Noland, 2001; Cervero and Hansen, 2002).”
Modeling the Growth of Transportation Networks: A Comprehensive Review (2009, methodology): “Cervero and Hansen (2002) employed a simultaneous equations system to estimate both vehicle miles traveled and lane miles of supply, suggesting that the relationship is two way (based on Granger causality tests) and that similar forces are at work affecting changes in both travel demand and infrastr”
Activity Spaces, Biographies, Social Networks and their Welfare Gains and Externalities: Some Hypotheses and Empirical Results (2005, background): “See, for example, Cervero and Hansen (2002) or Fröhlich (2003) for evidence from models of induced demand, or Schäfer and Victor (2000) and Zahavi and Talvitie (1980) on the constant travel time budget hypothesis.”
Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect (2007, background): “This is considerably smaller than the long-run elasticities with respect to lane -miles of 0.8 found by Goodwin (1996, p. 51) and Cervero and Hansen (2002, p. 484), probably because road-miles are an inadequate measure of capacity.”
The Impact of High-Speed Rail Investment on Economic and Environmental Change in China: A Dynamic CGE Analysis (2016, unknown): “7 Like other transportation infrastructures, the investment in rail may potentially have a demand effect, which is likely to cause substitution of demand among different competitive modes and induce new travel demand as well (Cervero and Hansen, 2002).”
The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US Cities (2011, unknown): “To instrument for lane kilometers of highways, Cervero and Hansen (2002) use about 20 instruments describing politics and physical geog- 5 In fact, the two estimates have subtly different properties; see Jeffrey M. Wooldridge (2001, ch. 10).”