Future capacity growth of energy technologies: are scenarios consistent with historical evidence?

By Charlie Wilson, Arnulf Grubler, Nico Bauer, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi. Climatic Change, 2013

155 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/f51a8bfb81a0cf4082018b369bba709bb490b3c5

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Economics and Econometrics

In Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

Citations in the corpus

Assessment of wind and solar power in global low-carbon energy scenarios: An introduction (2017, background): “Models typically assume equal discount rates across regions and actors, as well as explicit or implicit constraints on the expansion rate of technologies (Wilson et al., 2013).”
Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation (2017, methodology): “As an example, reference or baseline scenarios are modelled to characterise salient uncertainties in future development pathways (e.g. Riahi et al. 2017).”
On the political feasibility of climate change mitigation pathways: Is it too late to keep warming below 1.5°C? (2019, background): “A number of studies show that the required growth in low-carbon energy technologies (at least with respect to 2 C pathways) is consistent with the historical growth of energy technologies, at least when measured in relation to the size of the energy system (Loftus et al., 2015; van Sluisveld et al.,”
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives (2017, background): “Overcoming limitations on up-scaling of innovative technologies and their wide diffusion are key energy sector challenges for policy makers (van Sluisveld et al., 2015; Wilson et al., 2013).”
Integrating techno-economic, socio-technical and political perspectives on national energy transitions: A meta-theoretical framework (2018, background): “Historians of technology have observed that many old technologies have lingered around for much longer [84] and many new ones entered the societies much faster [85] than economic models would have predicted.”
Apples, oranges, and consistent comparisons of the temporal dynamics of energy transitions (2016, background): “14 The consistency of the relationships in Figure 3 between the extent and duration of diffusion is surprising as the end-use and energy supply technologies analyzed are of markedly different characteristics (Wilson et al. 2012).”
Bridging analytical approaches for low-carbon transitions (2016, unknown): “A second response is to use historical data of past transitions to assess future transitions produced by IAMs and energy-economic models 49,50 .”
Report of the high-level commission on carbon prices (2017, background): “Both aspects are difficult to model and forecast because they are driven by many factors such as innovation and learning, and institutional and financial constraints (Acemoglu et al, 2012; Wilson et al. 2013; van Sluisveld et al. 2015; Vogt-Schilb, Meunier, and Hallegatte 2014; WRI 2016).”
Making or breaking climate targets: : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy (2015, unknown): “Also, alternative low-carbon technologies require time to diffuse into the system and ramp up to significant scale [68].”
A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS (2019, background): “In addition, IAMs have been described as having particular “patterns of model behaviour” [32], including models displaying a tendency to deploy a variety of low-carbon technologies simultaneously rather than see one technology dominate in any given time period [52].”