Making or breaking climate targets: : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

By Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Nico Bauer, Valeria Jana Schwanitz, Nils Petermann, Valentina Bosetti, A. Marcucci, S. Otto, Leonidas Paroussos, Shilpa Rao-Skirbekk and 22 more. 2015

207 citations recorded by the source corpus.

This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition – the EU or the EU and China – embarks on immediate ambitious climate action while the rest of the world makes a transition to a global climate regime between 2030 and 2050. We assume that the ensuing regime involves strong mitigation efforts but does not require late joiners to compensate for their initially higher emissions. Thus, climate targets are relaxed, and although staged accession can achieve significant reductions of global warming, the resulting climate outcome is unlikely to be consistent with the goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees. The addition of China to the front runner coalition can reduce pre-2050 excess emissions by 20–30%, increasing the likelihood of staying below 2 degrees. Not accounting for potential co-benefits, the cost of front runner action is found to be lower for the EU than for China. Regions that delay their accession to the climate regime face a trade-off between reduced short term costs and higher transitional requirements due to larger carbon lock-ins and more rapidly increasing carbon prices during the accession period.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Environmental Engineering

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/403eecb6e3ea0a2d7bb68a1d5878f9c80cb27cbd

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Citations in the corpus

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview (2017, unknown): “Our results are consistent with other major comparison studies (Clarke et al., 2014; Kriegler et al., 2015; Riahi et al., 2015) which suggest that carbon prices for achieving speci ﬁ c climate targets may vary signi ﬁ cantly across models and scenarios.”
Looking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models (2019, methodology): “The data set used for the comparison has been collected from the four ongoing or recently completed model inter-comparison projects ADVANCE [23,24], AMPERE WP2 [25] and WP3 [26], CDLINKS [27], and MILES [28].”
The road to achieving the long-term Paris targets: energy transition and the role of direct air capture (2017, background): “Different studies have analysed the economic impact of achieving the 2 °C under alternative policy and technology developments including delay or immediate climate action and availability of low-carbon technologies (see for instance Kriegler et al. 2013b; Riahi et al. 2015; Kriegler et al. 2015).”
A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS (2019, background): “For example, one paper resulting from the AMPERE programme [41] includes in its supplementary material details of “example” solar PV and storage capital costs, based on a 2008 analysis [42].”
Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992–2017 (2018, methodology): “…version of DICE-2016 with five uncertain parameters (from Nordhaus 2018), the MUP study just discussed, the AMPERE survey of models described in Kriegler et al. (2015), the SSP baselines described in Table 9, and the Energy Modeling Forum project # 27 summarized in Blanford et al. (2014),…”
Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory, perspectives and practical use (2019, methodology): “Few of the current E3 models (e.g. as in GEA, 2012; IPCC, 2014b; Kriegler et al., 2014) have representations of the financial sector, its relevance for a large scale decarbonization transition and its impact on the macroeconomy.”
Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation (2015, background): “Model studies indicate that in order to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a switch to carbon-free energy supply is needed in addition to major energy efficiency improvements [1,2].”