Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Modelling

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Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment: A two-track approach (2006, background): “…contain both objective knowledge also subjectivity; and also that uncertainty is not any longer considered as a mathematical artefact that can be reduced or avoided, but that uncertainty is a given as symptom of complexity in the world around is (Van Asselt, 2000; Van Asselt & Rotmans, 2002).”
Relationships between mesoscale morphological units, stream hydraulics and Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawning habitat on the Lower Yuba River, California (2008, background): “Recognizing that two-dimensional models, like all models, have inherent strengths and weaknesses, some amount of uncertainty in model results must be understood and accepted (Van Asselt and Rotmans, 2002).”
Separating natural and epistemic uncertainty in flood frequency analysis (2005, background): “There are comprehensive taxonomies of uncertainty in the literature which discuss in detail different sources and kinds of uncertainty (Morgan and Henrion, 1990; Rowe, 1994; Haimes, 1998; van Asselt and Rotmans, 2002 ).”
Does climate policy need probabilities (2003, methodology): “…minimisation), validation, the NUSAP (Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree) method (see Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1990 or http://www.nusap.net/), and a new approach the authors called " pluralistic uncertainty management " , which is further developed elsewhere (van Asselt and Rotmans, 2002).”