The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments.

By M. Bar-Hillel. 1980

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Citations in the corpus

Heuristics and Biases: Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate? (2002, unknown): “Birnbaum (1983) has demonstrated that conceptualizing the well-known taxicab baserate problem (see Bar-Hillel 1980; Tversky & Kahneman 1982) within a signal-detection framework can lead to different estimates from those assumed to be normatively correct under the less flexible Bayesian model that…”
Nudging and Boosting: Steering or Empowering Good Decisions (2017, background): “…and 1980s, researchers within the heuristics-and-biases program (Kahneman, 2011) concluded that people systematically neglect base rates in Bayesian inference: “the genuineness, the robustness, and the generality of the base-rate fallacy are matters of established fact” (Bar-Hillel, 1980, p. 215).”
STATISTICAL COGNITION: TOWARDS EVIDENCE-BASED PRACTICE IN STATISTICS AND STATISTICS EDUCATION (2008, background): “Research on the base rate fallacy (Bar-Hillel, 1980) demonstrated how people tend to ignore base-rates, thus behaving like null hypothesis statistical testers.”
Can Punishment Encourage Offending? Investigating The “resetting” Effect (2003, background): “Rational choice economists and decision theorists often use the framework of Bayesian updating to analyze the effect of information on judgments (Bar Hillel 1980; O’Flaherty and Komaki 1992).”
Effectual versus predictive logics in entrepreneurial decision making: Differences between experts and novices: Does experience in starting new ventures change the way entrepreneurs think? Perhaps, but for now, "Caution" is essential (2009, unknown): “” Papers by Baron and Ensley (2006), Baron and Henry (2006), Mitchell (2005) and Krueger (2007) all suggest entrepreneurs may become experts in starting new ventures through processes of deliberate practice. Overall, we conclude that whether deliberate practice is an essential part of the developmen”
When Profit Equals Price: Consumer Confusion about Donation Amounts in Cause-Related Marketing (2003, result): “Similar findings have been obtained for posteriors associated with other diseases (Casscells, Schoenberger, and Graboys 1978; Hammerton 1973) and even the color of a taxi (Bar-Hillel 1980; Tversky and Kahneman 1982).”