Projections of Education Statistics to 2018. Thirty-Seventh Edition. NCES 2009-062.

By William J. Hussar, T. M. Bailey. 2009

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The effect of teacher influence at school on first-year teacher attrition: A multilevel analysis of the Schools and Staffing Survey for 1999–2000 (2007, background): “…February 2007, pp. 1 – 16 ISSN 1380-3611 (print)/ISSN 1744-4187 (online)/07/010001–16 2007 Taylor & Francis DOI: 10.1080/13803610600797615 shortage (Darling-Hammond, 1984; Gerald & Hussar, 1998; National Academy of Sciences, 1987), and such a shortage will be exacerbated by high teacher turnover.”
Student Teaching and Teacher Attrition in Special Education (2009, background): “Student enrollment is expected to peak in 2007; as a result, the demand for special education teachers is expected to increase through this decade (Gerald & Hussar, 2000; Katsiyannis et al., 2003).”
The Mathematics and Science Teacher Shortage: Fact and Myth (2009, methodology): “This statistic was drawn from an NCES analysis (Gerald & Hussar, 1998; Hussar, 1998) that projected the numbers of teachers who would need to be hired from 1998 to 2008 in order to replace those who had left teaching and to account for student enrollment increases.”