Stratospheric Connection to Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Weather: Implications for Prediction

By D. Thompson, M. Baldwin, J. Wallace. 2002

556 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/bccd1a56ea531564b3b74d0088bed77f536d827f

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Citations in the corpus

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions (2012, background): “[4] A substantial body of research has indicated an influence of the stratospheric vortex on high latitude circulations at Earth’s surface, with a strengthened vortex associated with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation [Baldwin and Dunkerton, 1999, 2001; Thompson et al., 2002; B”
The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time‐scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts (2015, background): “…NWP systems, Smith et al. (2012) highlighted the importance of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events as a potential source of additional predictability in long-range forecasts of cold winter weather in Europe and the eastern USA (e.g. Thompson et al., 2002; Marshall and Scaife, 2010).”
The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6) (2019, background): “Thompson et al. (2002) and Charlton-Perez et al. (2013) illustrated how the middle atmosphere can improve predictability of the lower atmosphere.”
Equatorial and Low Latitude Ionospheric Effects During Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events (2011, background): “A distinct tropospheric response to SSW was found in both experimental (e.g., Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001; Thompson et al. 2002; Thompson and Solomon 2002) and modeling (Sexton 2001; Polvani and Kushner 2002; Charlton et al. 2004) studies.”
Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a Breaking Wave (2004, background): “Such a connection, which has been proposed by Perlwitz and Graf (2001), Thompson et al. (2002), and Ambaum and Hoskins (2002), could have implications for predictability.”
Defining Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (2015, background): “…phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), involving an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic storm track; extreme cold air outbreaks in parts of North America, northern Eurasia, and Siberia; and strong warming of Greenland, eastern Canada, and southern Eurasia (e.g., Thompson et al. 2002).”
Impact of the QBO on surface winter climate (2009, methodology): “[Thompson et al., 2002]. [4] The impact of the QBO on the northern winter polar vortex has been simulated in numerous modeling studies. O’Sullivan and Salby [1990] produced the first calculations”
Upward Wave Activity Flux as a Precursor to Extreme Stratospheric Events and Subsequent Anomalous Surface Weather Regimes (2004, background): “…that extreme stratospheric events (ESEs), defined as days when the AO index exceeds a given threshold either positively or negatively, are followed by anomalous weather regimes at the surface that persist for up to two months (Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001, hereafter BD2001; Thompson et al. 2002).”
What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting? (2012, background): “It has now become well established that these events can lead to forecast skill for cold spells in Europe and the Eastern USA out to a month ahead (Thompson et al 2002, Marshall and Scaife 2010).”
Mesosphere inversion layers and stratosphere temperature enhancements (2004, methodology): “…sudden stratospheric warmings and their relationship to the Northern Annular Mode (formerly known as the Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation [Baldwin and Dunkerton, 1999; Baldwin, 2000; Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001; Thompson et al., 2001]) have created a resurgence of interest in STEs.”
The association between stratospheric weak polar vortex events and cold air outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere (2009, background): “This is consistent with findings from previous studies (Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001; Thompson et al., 2002; Chen et al., 2005).”
Transfer of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the troposphere: Northern winter (2004, unknown): “…Christiansen, 2001; Norton, 2003; Song and Robinson, 2004] and/or provide statistical evidence for stratosphere-troposphere coupling through typical atmospheric modes [Perlwitz and Graf, 1995; Thompson and Wallace, 2000; Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001; Thompson et al., 2002; Black and McDaniel, 2004].”
Downward Coupling between the Stratosphere and Troposphere: The Relative Roles of Wave and Zonal Mean Processes* (2004, methodology): “of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) (Baldwin and Dunkerton, 1999, 2001; Thompson et al., 2002 ).”