Upward Wave Activity Flux as a Precursor to Extreme Stratospheric Events and Subsequent Anomalous Surface Weather Regimes

By L. Polvani, D. Waugh. 2004

481 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b1963441798b9f0368d16d5feef9be6c56cc1f40

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Citations in the corpus

Equatorial and Low Latitude Ionospheric Effects During Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events (2011, background): “Stratospheric anomalies propagate downward on timescales of several weeks, and the impact of SSW on the circulation in the troposphere can last for many weeks (Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001; Polvani and Waugh 2004).”
Stratospheric Communication of El Niño Teleconnections to European Winter (2009, methodology): “The meridional eddy heat flux at 100 hPa can be used a proxy for the vertical component of the Eliassen– Palm flux (Andrews at al. 1987; Polvani and Waugh 2004) and therefore as a diagnostic tool for stratospheric planetary wave forcing.”
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (2020, background): “Newman et al. (2001) and Polvani and Waugh (2004) pointed out that a single pre-498 cursor event will likely not cause suﬃcient deceleration of the stratospheric polar vor-499 tex; rather it is the accumulated wave forcing over 40-60 days that needs to be anoma-500 lously strong to cause enough…”
Tropospheric Precursors of Anomalous Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortices (2009, methodology): “Because the EP flux integrated over at least a few prior weeks determines the state of the vortex at a given time (Polvani and Waugh 2004), we compute lagged correlations of the smoothed AlI and EEI with the vortex to better isolate the time scale of the wave–mean flow interaction.”
Memory Matters: A Case for Granger Causality in Climate Variability Studies (2018, background): “…analysis has been used in a wide variety of climate science applications, including, but not limited to, stratosphere–troposphere interactions (e.g., Polvani and Waugh 2004); tropical variability patterns, such as the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Ni ñ o– Southern Oscillation (e.g., Klein et…”
The dynamical response to snow cover perturbations in a large ensemble of atmospheric GCM integrations. (2008, background): “The cumulative Dy9T9 is relevant here because it has been shown that the zonal mean circulation responds to a buildup in F, rather than to the instantaneous wave driving (Newman et al. 2001; Polvani and Waugh 2004).”
Case studies of the mesospheric response to recent minor, major, and extended stratospheric warmings (2010, background): “Figure 1 of Randall et al. [2006], it appears that much of the NO descent through the lower mesosphere occurred much later in February, as the warm layer began to descend to lower altitudes.”
Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events (2009, background): “Such heat flux anomalies, averaged over the northern hemisphere (45N–75N), are in general positive prior to both the splitting and the displacement events [see, e.g., Polvani and Waugh, 2004 ].”
Associations between stratospheric variability and tropospheric blocking (2010, background): “Polvani and Waugh [2004] demonstrated that enhanced tropospheric wave activity precedes changes in the stratospheric annular mode, and it is likely that blocking contributes to this tropospheric wave activity.”
Downward Coupling between the Stratosphere and Troposphere: The Relative Roles of Wave and Zonal Mean Processes* (2004, background): “The downward progression of observed zonal mean anomalies, at least to the lower-most stratosphere, is thought to result from the dynamics of wave–mean-flow interaction (Christiansen 2001; Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001; Plumb and Semeniuk 2003; Polvani and Waugh 2004).”
Tropospheric Precursors and Stratospheric Warmings (2011, background): “has been shown to precipitate stratospheric warmings (Polvani and Waugh 2004).”
The Role of Linear Interference in the Annular Mode Response to Tropical SST Forcing (2010, background): “…increases planetary wave driving in the stratosphere and therefore tends to weaken the stratospheric polar vortex (Ineson and Scaife 2009; Garfinkel and Hartmann 2008), which is highly coherent with the NAM signature in the lower troposphere (Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001; Polvani and Waugh 2004).”
Increased Occurrence of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings during El Niño as Simulated by WACCM (2006, background): “Polvani and Waugh (2004) also showed that stratospheric anomalies are best correlated with the lower stratospheric heat flux when it is averaged (or cumulated) for the prior 40 days or longer.”
The Teleconnection of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere (2019, background): “The increased wave driving can lead to SSW events, which are preceded by extreme episodes of upward wave flux (Polvani & Waugh, 2004).”
Observed connection between stratospheric sudden warmings and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (2012, unknown): “A SSW can influence jets in the troposphere, and in particular lead to the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), in the weeks or months following an event and thereby impact surface climate [ Baldwin and Dunkerton , 2001; Polvani and Waugh , 2004; Limpasuvan et al. , 2004].”