Modelling transport energy demand: A socio-technical approach

By Jillian Anable, Christian Brand, Martino Tran, N. Eyre. 2012

210 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Despite an emerging consensus that societal energy consumption and related emissions are not only influenced by technical efficiency but also by lifestyles and socio-cultural factors, few attempts have been made to operationalise these insights in models of energy demand. This paper addresses that gap by presenting a scenario exercise using an integrated suite of sectoral and whole systems models to explore potential energy pathways in the UK transport sector. Techno-economic driven scenarios are contrasted with one in which social change is strongly influenced by concerns about energy use, the environment and well-being. The ‘what if’ Lifestyle scenario reveals a future in which distance travelled by car is reduced by 74% by 2050 and final energy demand from transport is halved compared to the reference case. Despite the more rapid uptake of electric vehicles and the larger share of electricity in final energy demand, it shows a future where electricity decarbonisation could be delayed. The paper illustrates the key trade-off between the more aggressive pursuit of purely technological fixes and demand reduction in the transport sector and concludes there are strong arguments for pursuing both demand and supply side solutions in the pursuit of emissions reduction and energy security.

Subfields: Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Transportation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/bb47e3c5bfa5b687d422654a1274827125465e99

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In Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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Citations in the corpus

DP-WHERE: Differentially private modeling of human mobility (2013, background): “A wide range of values of , e.g.,”
External costs of electric vehicles (2016, background): “Electric vehicles (EV) might help to master some of those challenges (e.g. Anable et al., 2012).”
Green supply chain management, economic growth and environment: A GMM based evidence (2018, background): “Unquestionably, logistics activities consumed energy in order to achieve their task and consumption of energy become greater (Anable et al., 2012) in the context of global logistics.”
Long-term Transport Energy Demand and Climate Policy: Alternative Visions on Transport Decarbonization in Energy Economy Models (2014, background): “Tight et al find a limit of about 20% reduction in passenger transport emissions that can be achieved by behavioral changes alone [60], while Anable et al register a 58% reduction in 2050 UK transport CO2 emissions achieved only by lifestyle changes when coupling a storyline for proenvironmental lif”
The critical role of the industrial sector in reaching long-term emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable targets (2016, background): “for example [12], [13], [14] for the resi82 dential sector; and [15], [16], [17] for the transport sector).”
Climate change, tourist air travel and radical emissions reduction (2016, background): “Transport is widely recognised as one of the most expensive and difficult sectors in which to reduce energy demand, yet it is responsible for nearly 25% of global energy-related CO2 emissions, with these expected to double by 2050 from a 2005 baseline (Anable et al., 2012; IEA, 2008).”
Scientific research about climate change mitigation in transport: a critical review (2011, background): “2), there is increasing evidence that other, more-than-rational factors, such as symbolism and affects, play an important role in travel practices (Steg, 2005; Anable et al., 2011) and are entangled in complex ways with rationality (Randalls, 2011).”
Why sustainable transport policies will fail: EU climate policy in the light of transport taboos (2014, background): “Technological innovation alone is unlikely to reduce transport emissions in line with EU and global mitigation objectives (e.g. Anable et al., 2012; Banister, 2008, 2011; Chapman, 2007; Daly and Ó Gallachóir, 2011; Dubois et al. 2011; Dray et al. 2012; Hill et al. 2012; IEA, 2013; UNWTO-UNEP-WMO,…”
Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon passenger transport system: The role of car purchase taxes, feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives in the UK (2013, background): “Finally, more work needs to be done to understand systemwide energy implications of low carbon transitions in transport as well as other sectors, in particular when looking at the likely electrification of road and rail transport (Anable et al., 2012).”
Exploring consumer preferences towards electric vehicles: The influence of consumer innovativeness (2016, background): “A significant quantity of forecasting studies have been conducted to assess potential adoption pathways for EV demand (Karplus et al. 2010; Eggers and Eggers, 2011; Musti and Kockleman, 2011; Anable et al. 2012; Shepherd et al. 2012).”
Assessing CO2 emissions of electric vehicles in Germany in 2030 (2015, methodology): “Torchio and Santarelli 2010, Anable et al. 2012, Bickert and Kuckshinrichs 2011, Thomas 2012, Thiel et al. 2014, Brand et al. 2013, Millo et al. 2014, Vliet et al. 2011, Hackney and de Neufville 2001, Zhang et al. 2013). Another focus is on the comparison of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV”