Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events

By Olivia Martius, L. Polvani, H. Davies. 2009

273 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The primary causes for the onset of major, midwinter, stratospheric sudden warming events remain unclear. In this paper, we report that 25 of the 27 events objectively identified in the ERA‐40 dataset for the period 1957–2001 are preceded by blocking patterns in the troposphere. The spatial characteristics of tropospheric blocks prior to sudden warming events are strongly correlated with the type of sudden warming event that follows. Vortex displacement events are nearly always preceded by blocking over the Atlantic basin only, whereas vortex splitting events are preceded by blocking events occurring in the Pacific basin or in both basins contemporaneously. The differences in the geographical blocking distribution prior to sudden warming events are mirrored in the patterns of planetary waves that are responsible for producing events of either type. The evidence presented here, suggests that tropospheric blocking plays an important role in determining the onset and the type of warmings.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Oceanography

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/5f48ea5b1a98501ea8f06e4f7622def5bc4317fe

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Citations in the corpus

Downward Arctic Oscillation signal associated with moderate weak stratospheric polar vortex and the cold December 2009 (2010, background): “Previous studies suggested that the stratospheric warming may be caused by upward propagating atmospheric waves excited by thermal or orographic forcing [Andrews et al., 1987], and that major stratospheric warming is likely preceded by the tropospheric blocking [Martius et al., 2009].”
The association between stratospheric weak polar vortex events and cold air outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere (2009, background): “More work is therefore needed to address the chain of cause and effect and to investigate tropospheric precursors of weak vortex events, adding to existing studies of troposphere–stratosphere interactions (Kuroda and Kodera, 1999; Chen et al., 2003; Polvani and Waugh, 2004; Reichler et al., 2005; Sc”
The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling (2020, background): “Precursors in the Extratropical NH Troposphere SSW events are often preceded by anomalously strong vertical propagation of waves into the extratropical stratosphere, and favorable tropospheric circulation patterns exist that promote such wave generation (e.g. Bao et al., 2017; Charlton & Polvani, 20”
Vortex Preconditioning due to Planetary and Gravity Waves prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (2014, background): “For example, while SSWs are seemingly well correlated with tropospheric blocking events, of the 782 blocks that occurred during the winter seasons between 1957 and 2001, only 52 occurred prior to an SSW (Martius et al. 2009).”
The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time‐scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts (2015, background): “Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.”
Predicting Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2018 and Its Climate Impacts With a Multimodel Ensemble (2018, background): “Blocking anticyclones in these regions were earlier associated with tropospheric forcing of SSWs (Cohen & Jones, 2011; Gar ﬁ nkel et al., 2010; Martius et al., 2009; Woollings et al., 2010).”
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (2020, background): “The second criterion in the Matsuno model—that SSWs are driven by an excep-486 tional pulse of wave activity from the troposphere—is supported by the fact that SSWs are often preceded by blocking events, which amplify the tropospheric wave activity (e.g. Quiroz, 1986; Martius et al., 2009).”
Tropospheric Precursors of Anomalous Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortices (2009, background): “Our investigation will center on how tropospheric anomalies generated by ENSO or October Eurasian snow anomalies, or any other process such as blocking (Martius et al. 2009), can weaken the vortex.”