Heuristics and Biases: When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism

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The Study of Bias in Entrepreneurship (2017, unknown): “Overconfidence produces a crucial byproduct, positive affect (Armor & Taylor, 2002; Lyubomirsky, King, & Diener, 2005).”
The Bright Side of Managerial Over-Optimism (2016, background): “…(Armor and Taylor, 2002). is the standard deviation of the monthly stock return over eight quarters before the beginning of the forecasted quarter (Armor and Taylor, 2002). is the log of the number of analysts covering the firm in a given quarter (Hilary and Hsu, 2011). represents the percentage…”
The affective costs of overconfidence (2004, background): “The positive illusions literature suggests that people are not indiscriminately optimistic (see Armor & Taylor, 2002).”
The Origin of Failure: A Multidisciplinary Appraisal of the Hubris Hypothesis and Proposed Research Agenda (2014, background): “Such individuals irrationally assign high probabilities to the occurrence of good events due to their contribution and low probabilities to the occurrence of unfavorable events (Armor & Taylor, 2002).”
Legitimacy‐as‐Feeling: How Affect Leads to Vertical Legitimacy Spillovers in Transnational Governance (2014, unknown): “Thus, the positivity bias manifests itself in the optimism that leads individuals to filter out weakly negative information and to believe they can achieve desirable outcomes (Armor and Taylor, 2002).”