Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

By M. Sigmond, J. Scinocca, V. Kharin, T. G. Shepherd. 2013

349 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/a4da778b7bafe6f519829e07ca030af904b1e46f

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Citations in the corpus

The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time‐scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts (2015, methodology): “These exploratory studies were expanded in a systematic analysis of a comprehensive seasonal forecasting system by Sigmond et al. (2013) to assess the model’s ability to capture observed NAM indices, sea-level pressure, surface temperature and precipitation following SSWs, as shown in Figure 7.”
Tropical rainfall, Rossby waves and regional winter climate predictions (2017, background): “For example, ENSO tends to peak in winter, and the stratosphere, which is related to extratropical winter NAO predictability (Sigmond et al., 2013; Scaife et al., 2016), is only dynamically active in winter (e.g. Kidston et al., 2015).”
The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling (2020, methodology): “14 of 20 Finally, to provide a comparison with the results of Sigmond et al. (2013), the anomalous skill associated with initialization during SSW events is summarized in Figures 6e and 6f.”
Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere (2016, background): “This result may also be robust across forecast systems and timescales (e.g. Sigmond et al., 2013; Stockdale et al., 2015).”
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (2020, background): “This strato-758 spheric downward eﬀect is known to contribute to surface predictability (Sigmond et al., 2013; Scaife et al., 2016; Domeisen, Butler, et al., 2020b).”
Separating the stratospheric and tropospheric pathways of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections (2013, methodology): “A recent modeling study by Sigmond et al (2013), in which dynamical forecast simulations were initialized during SSWs while sea surface temperatures were relaxed to climatology, showed surface impacts similar to those shown above as a consequence of SSWs during ENSO-neutral winters.”
Predicting Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2018 and Its Climate Impacts With a Multimodel Ensemble (2018, background): “Earlier it was demonstrated that state-of-the-art forecast systems are capable of capturing downward propagation and surface impacts of stratospheric anomalies contributing to skillful subseasonal forecasts (Sigmond et al., 2013; Tripathi et al., 2015).”
The Remarkably Strong Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex of Winter 2020: Links to Record‐Breaking Arctic Oscillation and Ozone Loss (2020, background): “Studies have consistently shown a relationship between wintertime polar stratospheric initial conditions and improved S2S forecast skill (e.g., Nie et al., 2019; Scaife et al., 2016; Sigmond et al., 2013; Tripathi, Baldwin, et al., 2015; Tripathi, Charlton-Perez, et al., 2015).”
Predictability of downward propagation of major sudden stratospheric warmings (2017, background): “These climate anomalies may persist for up to 2 months during which period the climate forecasts, both statistical and dynamical, are typically more skilful (Baldwin et al., 2003; Christiansen, 2005; Scaife and Knight, 2008; Sigmond et al., 2013; Karpechko, 2015).”