Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere

By Adam A. Scaife, A. Karpechko, M. Baldwin, A. Brookshaw, A. Butler, R. Eade, M. Gordon, C. MacLachlan, N. Martin, N. Dunstone and 1 more. 2016

204 citations recorded by the source corpus.

We investigate seasonal forecasts of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their relationship with the stratosphere. Climatological frequencies of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events are well represented and the predicted risk of events varies between 25 and 90% from winter to winter, indicating predictability beyond the deterministic range. The risk of SSW and SPV events relates to predicted NAO as expected, with NAO shifts of −6.5 and +4.8 hPa in forecast members containing SSW and SPV events. Most striking of all is that forecast skill of the surface winter NAO vanishes from these hindcasts if members containing SSW events are excluded.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/79071b29c20a1620b1e71e965950c967e0a3a2f6

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Citations in the corpus

Tropical rainfall, Rossby waves and regional winter climate predictions (2017, background): “For example, ENSO tends to peak in winter, and the stratosphere, which is related to extratropical winter NAO predictability (Sigmond et al., 2013; Scaife et al., 2016), is only dynamically active in winter (e.g. Kidston et al., 2015).”
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (2020, background): “This strato-758 spheric downward eﬀect is known to contribute to surface predictability (Sigmond et al., 2013; Scaife et al., 2016; Domeisen, Butler, et al., 2020b).”
The Teleconnection of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere (2019, background): “, 2015), probabilistic prediction of SSW events is possible on longer time scales (Scaife et al., 2016).”
Temperature (2019, unknown): “ing predictability on the NWS, builds on the Scaife et al. (2014) study, and found that lagged relationships between the observed NAO and parameters such as the English Channel SST, are still significant when driven by the”