Predicting Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2018 and Its Climate Impacts With a Multimodel Ensemble
By A. Karpechko, A. Charlton-Perez, M. Balmaseda, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, F. Vitart. Geophysical Research Letters, 2018
135 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are significant source of enhanced subseasonal predictability, but whether this source is untapped in operational models remains an open question. Here we report on the prediction of the SSW on 12 February 2018, its dynamical precursors, and surface climate impacts by an ensemble of dynamical forecast models. The ensemble forecast from 1 February predicted 3 times increased odds of an SSW compared to climatology, although the lead time for SSW prediction varied among individual models. Errors in the forecast location of a Ural high and underestimated magnitude of upward wave activity flux reduced SSW forecast skill. Although the SSW's downward influence was not well forecasted, the observed northern Eurasia cold anomaly following SSW was predicted, albeit with a weaker magnitude, due to persistent tropospheric anomalies. The ensemble forecast from 8 February predicted the SSW, its subsequent downward influence, and a long‐lasting cold anomaly at the surface.
Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/22e042f4a83417992b02aa15ff5bd173447da9af
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
In Atmospheric Science
In Global and Planetary Change
Citations in the corpus
- Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (2020, background): “An interesting recent example of this is the limited skill that models had in forecasting the February 2018 SSW, which has been linked to the inability of some models to capture high pressure over the Urals (Karpechko et al., 2018) and related anticyclonic wave breaking in the North Atlantic sector ”