Perspectives on Probability Judgment Calibration

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Decision-making Competence, Executive Functioning, and General Cognitive Abilities (2012, background): “However, most individuals tend to be overconfident (for a review, see Griffin & Brenner, 2004).”
Overconfidence in Psychology and Finance - An Interdisciplinary Literature Review (2008, unknown): “Brenner and Griffin (2004) propose their own structure in calibration research, with the main areas being optimistic overconfidence (building on the self-serving bias, the better-than-average effect, unrealistic optimism and illusion of control), confirmatory bias (seeking evidence which confirms…”
Two-stage dynamic signal detection: a theory of choice, decision time, and confidence. (2010, background): “An important and well-studied aspect of subjective probabilities is their accuracy (see Arkes, 2001; Griffin & Brenner, 2004; Koehler, Brenner, & Griffin, 2002; McClelland & Bolger, 1994).”
Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years (2006, background): “…providers’ overconfidence can be thought of as expressing doverpredictionT (consistent preference to assign probabilities that are too high), or doverextremityT (tendency to assess probabilities that are consistently very close to 0 or 1.0), with different implications (Griffin & Brenner, 2004).”