The future shocks: On discontinuity and scenario development
By P. V. Notten, A. M. Sleegers, M. Asselt. 2005
169 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Subfields: Global and Planetary Change, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Management Science and Operations Research
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/960f887bf312a6d93be7f136312f21beb31f6cca
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
In Global and Planetary Change
- G. Verbong
- Marjolijn Haasnoot
- Jan H. Kwakkel
- Holger R. Maier
- Frank W. Geels
- Rob P. J. M. Raven
- Benjamin Sovacool
- P. Newell
In Management Science and Operations Research
- G. Verbong
- Marjolijn Haasnoot
- Jan H. Kwakkel
- Frank W. Geels
- H. El Bilali
- Rob P. J. M. Raven
- Marko P. Hekkert
- T. Foxon
Citations in the corpus
- Exploring sustainability transitions in the electricity sector with socio-technical pathways (2010, background): “In our view, most of them suffer from one or more problems: a) they tend to be more about ‘end states’ than about dynamic pathways towards end states, b) they focus too much on technological fixes and pay too little attention to social dynamics and contexts, c) dealing with discontinuities and trans”
- What Drives Substantive Versus Symbolic Implementation of ISO 14001 in a Time of Economic Crisis? Insights from Greek Manufacturing Companies (2018, background): “Notes 1 A ‘discontinuity’ is “a temporary or permanent, sometimes unexpected, break in a dominant condition in society” (van Notten et al. 2005 p.179).”
- An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together? (2016, background): “1b), or the occurrence of extreme events/ discontinuities in a future projection (Modarres and Ouarda, 2013; Syud et al., 2009; Van Notten et al., 2005).”
- The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support (2020, unknown): “…that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions ” (Mahmoud et al., 2009), the number of samples used is quite small ( 10), as each sample generally corresponds to a coherent narrative storyline (scenario) of an alternative hypothetical future (van Notten et al., 2005).”
- Corporate Foresight: Its Three Roles in Enhancing the Innovation Capacity of a Firm (2011, unknown): “influence the future and at mapping uncertainty by including potential discontinuities [88-90].”