An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?

By Holger R. Maier, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, H. Delden, G. Riddell, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Jan H. Kwakkel. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2016

450 citations recorded by the source corpus.

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Groundwater sustainability: a review of the interactions between science and policy (2020, background): “…systems (Guillaume et al 2012, Di Baldassarre et al 2016), ecosystems (Hamel and Bryant 2017), water-ecosystems (Beven and Alcock 2012), future scenarios (Maier et al 2016), and decision support (Reichert et al 2015), not much has been done in practice in the groundwater sustainability literature.”
The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support (2020, unknown): “…when stakeholders do not know, or cannot agree on, a system model that relates action to consequences, the probability distributions to represent uncertainty in the inputs to the model, and/or how to value the desirability of alternative outcomes (Lempert et al., 2003; Maier et al., 2016).”
A critical view on the current application of LCA for new technologies and recommendations for improved practice (2020, background): “The remedy is to “think about the future in terms of multiple plausible futures rather than probability distributions” (Maier et al., 2016).”