Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative.

By J. Clark, Stephen R. Carpenter, M. Barber, S. Collins, A. Dobson, J. Foley, David M. Lodge, M. Pascual, R. Pielke, William A. Pizer and 7 more. Science, 2001

936 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Ecology, Environmental Chemistry

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/94339e7e1d9292afb68f25f82d8858727829c7c0

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In Environmental Chemistry

Citations in the corpus

Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts (2010, background): “Predicting critical transitions is a difficult task (Clark et al. 2001).”
The Ecology and Evolution of Seed Dispersal: A Theoretical Perspective (2003, background): “Although the magnitude of inherent (nonreducible) uncertainty (Clark et al. 2001) is unknown, a potential for high inherent uncertainty does exist.”
Phytoplankton community ecology: principles applied in San Francisco Bay (2005, neutral): “Given the imperative of forecasting ecological responses across the fastchanging landscapes of the Earth system (Clark et al. 2001), species-level studies are required to build the foundation for constructing models of pelagic community responses under plausible scenarios of environmental change…”
Soil Water Balance and Ecosystem Response to Climate Change (2004, background): “…number of processes that make up the dynamics of the soil water balance and the extremely large degree of nonlinearity and space-time variability of hydrological and ecological phenomena (Clark et al. 2001; Porporato and RodriguezIturbe 2002) call for simplifying assumptions at different levels.”
Climate change effects on poikilotherm tritrophic interactions (2008, background): “Because of the cost effectiveness of biological control in general, additional support for it and for forecasting and analysis methods (Clark et al. 2001) is warranted.”
Mechanistic links between climate and fisheries along the east coast of the United States: explaining population outbursts of Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) (2007, background): “Ecological forecasting and stock assessments The analyses presented here provide several mechanisms to forecast future Atlantic croaker catch (see Williams and Quinn, 2000; Clark et al., 2001).”
Methods for estimating long-distance dispersal (2003, background): “Attempts to estimate LDD must begin with recognition that due to the inherent uncertainty typically associated with LDD processes (Clark et al. 2001), highly accurate estimates of LDD will often be difficult to obtain.”
Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change (2014, background): “Therefore, predictions of the evolution of land systems are important for determining the potential trade-offs between land-system changes and ecosystem services and guiding policy in managing increasingly scarce natural resources (Clark et al., 2001; Davidson et al., 2012).”
Revealing stock–recruitment relationships in lobsters and crabs: is experimental ecology the key? (2003, background): “…in a three-part strategy proving to be most productive in ecological assessment and forecasting (Bjornstad and Grenfell, 2001; Brown et al., 2001; Clark et al., 2001): (1) modeling as a means to put testable hypotheses in a larger dynamic framework; (2) long-term and comprehensivemonitoring as…”
Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling. (2009, background): “Key words: Bayesian modeling; data model; design; empirical Bayes; harbor seals; MCMC; prior; process model; spatial process; spatiotemporal process.”
End-To-End Models for the Analysis of Marine Ecosystems: Challenges, Issues, and Next Steps (2010, neutral): “aging speed, we urge restraint in using end-to-end models in a true forecasting mode (Clark et al. 2001)”
Modelling the transport success of anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus eggs and larvae in the southern Benguela: the effect of spatio-temporal spawning patterns (2003, background): “In turn, predicting abundance is a major issue for scientists who wish to consider their own role in the decision-making process, as advocated by Clark et al. (2001).”
Globally, functional traits are weak predictors of juvenile tree growth, and we do not know why (2015, background): “To better manage and conserve ecological communities, we must improve our ability to predict their dynamics (Clark et al. 2001).”