End-To-End Models for the Analysis of Marine Ecosystems: Challenges, Issues, and Next Steps

By Kenneth A. Rose, J. Allen, Y. Artioli, M. Barangé, J. Blackford, F. Carlotti, R. Cropp, U. Daewel, K. Edwards, Kevin J. Flynn and 16 more. 2010

260 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Abstract There is growing interest in models of marine ecosystems that deal with the effects of climate change through the higher trophic levels. Such end-to-end models combine physicochemical oceanographic descriptors and organisms ranging from microbes to higher-trophic-level (HTL) organisms, including humans, in a single modeling framework. The demand for such approaches arises from the need for quantitative tools for ecosystem-based management, particularly models that can deal with bottom-up and top-down controls that operate simultaneously and vary in time and space and that are capable of handling the multiple impacts expected under climate change. End-to-end models are now feasible because of improvements in the component submodels and the availability of sufficient computing power. We discuss nine issues related to the development of end-to-end models. These issues relate to formulation of the zooplankton submodel, melding of multiple temporal and spatial scales, acclimation and adaptation, behavioral movement, software and technology, model coupling, skill assessment, and interdisciplinary challenges. We urge restraint in using end-to-end models in a true forecasting mode until we know more about their performance. End-to-end models will challenge the available data and our ability to analyze and interpret complicated models that generate complex behavior. End-to-end modeling is in its early developmental stages and thus presents an opportunity to establish an open-access, community-based approach supported by a suite of true interdisciplinary efforts.

Subfields: Ecology, Global and Planetary Change, Oceanography

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/01255260c5576b186b1bad3c03a3ddedd350cf3d

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Citations in the corpus

Modelling climate change impacts on marine fish populations: process-based integration of ocean warming, acidification and other environmental drivers (2016, background): “…representation of climate change impacts, i.e. from 617 physical oceanographic changes via nutrient dynamics and planktonic lower trophic levels, 618 to fish stocks, other higher trophic levels and links to socio-economic dynamics (Travers et 619 al., 2007, Fulton, 2010, Rose et al., 2010).”
Developing integrated models of Southern Ocean food webs: Including ecological complexity, accounting for uncertainty and the importance of scale (2012, unknown): “Much of the discussion based around Southern Ocean ecosystem modelling has parallels in general marine food web modelling (Allen and Somerfield, 2009; Allen and Fulton, 2010; Rose et al., 2010).”
Projecting changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources: A critical review of the suite of modelling approaches used in the large European project VECTORS (2016, methodology): “The end-to-end models may seem an ideal tool to be used in ecosystem-based approaches and their use in management forecasts will increase after their performance is adequately tested and critical knowledge gaps are identified and filled (Rose et al., 2010).”
Modeling What We Sample and Sampling What We Model: Challenges for Zooplankton Model Assessment (2017, background): “…know that zooplankton is essential to understanding the transfer of energy to fish and fisheries (Friedland et al., 2012; Lassalle et al., 2013), and therefore care needs to be taken in the representation of this link between the lower and upper tropic levels (Rose et al., 2010; Shin et al., 2010).”
Multispecies fisheries management and conservation: tactical applications using models of intermediate complexity (2014, background): “By comparison, end-to-end modelling allows for a much wider range of response variables, functional groups, et cetera to be investigated (Rose et al. 2010; Fulton 2010).”
Little Fish, Big Impact: Managing a Crucial Link in Ocean Food Webs (2012, unknown): “IOCS conducts world-class scientific research that increases knowledge about critical threats to oceans and their inhabitants, provides the foundation for smarter ocean policy, and establishes new frameworks for improved ocean conservation.”
Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models—Evaluation, review and challenges for implementation (2018, unknown): “…Cochrane, 2005; Gascuel et al., 2016; Hill et al., 2007; Howarth, Roberts, Thurstan, & Stewart, 2013; Marasco et al., 2007; Murawski et al., 2010; Neubauer, Jensen, Hutchhings, & Baum, 2013; Österblom, Jouffray, Spijkers, 2016; Pauly et al., 2013; Plagányi and Butterworth 2004; Rose et al., 2010).”
Bridging the gap between marine biogeochemical and fisheries sciences; configuring the zooplankton link (2014, background): “Model structure and complexity has not typically changed in ecosystem models to reflect improvements in our understanding of biological complexity with its attendant feedback mechanisms (Mitra and Davis, 2010; Rose et al., 2010).”