Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change

By Daniel Müller, Zhanli Sun, Thoumthone Vongvisouk, Dirk Pflugmacher, Jian-chu Xu, O. Mertz. 2014

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Approaches and terminology for causal analysis in land systems science (2016, background): “…dependence is also associated with the idea of regime shifts, stemming from complex systems and resilience theory that is gaining traction in LSS (Müller et al., 2014): When some causal forces push the system beyond a certain threshold, the path of change becomes selfreinforcing and difficult to…”
Forest Resources Assessment of 2015 shows positive global trends but forest loss and degradation persist in poor tropical countries (2015, background): “This raises the question as to whether the resultant expansion of forest area was simply a fortuitous ‘one-off’ phenomenon (Müller et al., 2014; Sloan, 2015).”
Middle-range theories of land system change (2018, background): “These dynamics produce land-use transitions, which are structural transformations of land systems from one dynamic equilibrium to another (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2010; Müller et al., 2014), akin to regime shifts in complex systems theory (Scheffer et al.”