Database Models And Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager

By Robert C. Blattberg, Stephen J. Hoch. 1990

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Manipulating and Measuring Model Interpretability (2018, background): “. Because of the impact that model-aided decision-making has on business and policy outcomes, the importance of these interactions has been emphasized in the management science literature for decades [9, 47]. Machine learning models are often evaluated based on their predictive performance on held-o”
Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters (2009, methodology): “Accuracy of weighting-based combined forecasts We follow Blattberg and Hoch (1990), who suggest a 50 : 50 weighting, and thus a simple averaging of forecasts in a different setting.”
Forecasting and operational research: a review (2008, methodology): “For example, Blattberg and Hoch (1990) argued that forecast improvements could be derived using a simple heuristic of 50% model + 50% man (ie judge) when producing market forecasts, while Fildes et al (2008) show that such a simple model has only limited generality and can be substantially improved…”
On the relevance of Cognitive Continuum Theory and quasirationality for understanding management judgment and decision making (2012, background): “Blattberg and Hoch (1990) compared the performance of a quasirational model against managerial intuition (expert) and application of a statistical (analytic) model in five forecasting tasks (i.e., two tasks concerned buyers' predictions of catalog sales of fashion merchandise and three tasks…”
Analyzing the Analysts: When Do Recommendations Add Value? (2004, background): “Behavioral research shows that, in many cases, the combination of a human decisionmaker and a mechanical decision-aid produces the best performance (see, e.g., Blattberg and Hoch (1990)).”
A review of studies on expert estimation of software development effort (2004, background): “Most estimation processes have both intuitive and explicit reasoning elements, as reported in the business forecasting study described in Blattberg and Hoch (1990).”
Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art (2020, background): “The first strategy is a combination of statistics and judgment (Blattberg and Hoch, 1990).”
Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting (2003, result): “An attractive analysis would consider the possibilities of combining a VSM with other new datagathering methods.It may be possible to create some sort of hybrid system.For example, a VSM could be combined with a focus group using the same set of participants.Such an approach would differ from the ap”
Trust and tacit knowledge sharing and use (2010, background): “This type of knowledge may play an important role in the strategic planning performance of managers and professional staff (Bennett, 1998; Blattberg and Hoch, 1990; Brockmann and Anthony, 1998).”
Task-Dependent Algorithm Aversion (2019, background): “They also noted that humans, unlike most algorithms, can provide explanations for their decisions (Armstrong 1980), are perceived to have high confidence (Sniezek and Buckley 1995), have a reputation to maintain (Eisenhardt 1989), and have information about future events (Blattberg and Hoch 1990).”
Intuition: A Challenge for Psychological Research on Decision Making (2010, background): “Identifying ways in which people can successfully incorporate both intuition and analysis in decision making is an important challenge for future research (for an example, see Blattberg & Hoch, 1990).”