Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

By Rob Dellink, Jean Château, E. Lanzi, B. Magné. 2017

770 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/63c932117a5b7bf3d2d6355b760bcdadf1c8857c

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Citations in the corpus

Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century (2018, background): “(2007), where population and GDP trajectories are taken from the SSP scenario specifications (KC and Lutz, 2017; Dellink et al., 2015).”
Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model: Regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation (2018, positive): “The story-lines were used to derive demographic (KC and Lutz, 2017) and economic scenarios (Dellink et al., 2017)(see Table 1, Fig.”
Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries (2016, methodology): “As starting point for future projections, we use the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 (SSP2) scenario (Chateau et al., 2015; Jiang and O’Neill, 2015; Samir and Lutz, 2015; O’Neill et al., 2015) as implemented in the IMAGE model (Van Vuuren et al., in review).”
Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050 (2018, methodology): “The models used in this paper are harmonized to the SSP quantitative projections on population (Kc and Lutz 2017) and economic GDP growth (Dellink et al 2017), and also assumptions related to agricultural and land use sectors are aligned to the extent possible (van Meijl et al 2017, see…”
How much energy will buildings consume in 2100? A global perspective within a scenario framework (2018, background): “Gross Domestic Product projections stem from Dellink et al.[41].”
Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits (2019, positive): “Future projections of national incomes are derived from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Env-Growth model (Dellink et al., 2015) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) GDP model (Samir and Lutz, 2014), as part of the “socioeconomic condi”
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives (2017, positive): “For the SSP driver scenarios of population and economic growth, quantitative projections, that are developed in line with the SSP narratives, have been adopted by all models (Dellink et al., 2017; KC and Lutz, 2017; both in this issue).”
Solar, wind and logistic substitution in global energy supply to 2050 – Barriers and implications (2022, neutral): “This 2050 value lies between the (inflation-adjusted) projections for SSP3 and SSP4 produced by Dellink et al .”
Less Than 2 °C Warming by 2100 Unlikely (2017, neutral): “Our predictive distribution of future world GDP per capita largely spans the range of scenarios used by the IPCC 20–22 , although there are large differences on a country-by-country basis.”
IPCC baseline scenarios have over-projected CO2 emissions and economic growth (2020, background): “…relatedly, authoritative economic growth forecasts, including the IMF’s (upon which IEA’s 2020–2040 and SSPs’ pre-2018 projections are largely based; Dellink et al 2017, IEA 2019a), have historically tended to over-project growth on average, partly due to under-projecting business-cycle…”
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century (2017, positive): “Regional economic output is deduced from the SSP country-level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) by the OECD team (Dellink et al., 2017).”