Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
By M. Gidden, Keywan Riahi, Steven J. Smith, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler, D. V. van Vuuren, Maarten van den Berg, Leyang Feng, David Klein and 13 more. Geoscientific Model Development, 2018
897 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Abstract. We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on the low end by a 1.9 W m−2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2 ∘C, and on the high end by a 8.5 W m−2 scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 ∘C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.
Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ecb8b17a4e867811c8b131a211f4a685deb7653c
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Citations in the corpus
- CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (2020, background): “This behavior is despite the significant differences among the SSPs in emission scenarios for the radiatively active species (Gidden et al., 2019) and will need more careful evaluation.”
- Predicting climate change impacts on potential worldwide distribution of fall armyworm based on CMIP6 projections (2021, neutral): “The current CMIP6 models differ from those of CMIP5 due to stronger warming, higher climate sensitivity of the new generation of climate models, new set of specifications for concentration, emission and socio-economic development (Gidden et al. 2019).”
- SPEAR: The Next Generation GFDL Modeling System for Seasonal to Multidecadal Prediction and Projection (2020, neutral): “…burning emissions of carbonaceous aerosols and sulfur dioxide (SO2) precursor to sulfate aerosols are from the Community Emissions Data System, CEDS (Hoesly et al., 2018) and the data set of van Marle et al. (2017), respectively, for the historical period and from Gidden et al. (2019) for SSP5‐85.”
- Evaluation of Historical CMIP6 Model Simulations of Seasonal Mean Temperature over Pakistan during 1970–2014 (2020, background): “Improved performance of CMIP6 models across JJA can be attributed to improvements in climate forcings’ effects, aerosols’ representation and resolution, detailed parameterization of cloud cover, vegetation, surface convection, physiographic features, diurnal cycles of models, and inclusion of the ea”
- Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changes (2020, methodology): “5) were used for future projections from2015 to 2099, which provide a full range of forcing targets similar in bothmagnitude and distribution to the RCPs as used in CMIP5 (Gidden et al 2019).”