Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

By Elmar Kriegler, Nico Bauer, A. Popp, Florian Humpenöder, Marian Leimbach, J. Strefler, Lavinia Baumstark, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jérôme Hilaire, David Klein and 22 more. 2017

624 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Abstract This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b57442b2c71fb91f4787b7624fa3d9313966dbd9

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Citations in the corpus

Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changes (2020, neutral): “…socioeconomic development, including sustainable development (SSP1) (van Vuuren et al 2017), middle-of-the-road development (SSP2) (Fricko et al 2017), regional rivalry (SSP3) (Fujimori et al 2017), inequality (SSP4) (Calvin et al 2017) and fossil-fueled development (SSP5) (Kriegler et al 2017).”
SPEAR: The Next Generation GFDL Modeling System for Seasonal to Multidecadal Prediction and Projection (2020, methodology): “Historical forcings are applied for the time period 1850 to 2014, while projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5‐8.5 (SSP5‐8.5) (Kriegler et al., 2017; Riahi et al., 2017) are applied for the 2015–2100 time period except where indicated.”
Large-scale bioenergy production: how to resolve sustainability trade-offs? (2018, background): “In line with existing literature, our study shows that the trade-off between bioenergy crop area expansion and food prices depends on the underlying socio-economic development [49].”
Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (2017, background): “Identifier Descriptor Marker IAM Also computed by (non-marker IAMs) Central SPA assumptions for Climate Mitigation SSP1 Sustainability IMAGE (van Vuuren et al., 2017) All Early accession with global collaboration as of 2020 SSP2 Middle-of-theroad MESSAGEGLOBIOM (Fricko et al., 2017) All Some delays ”
Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050 (2018, methodology): “The GLOBIOM implementation builds on Fricko et al (2017), IMAGE/MAGNET on van Vuuren et al (2017), and MAGPIE on Kriegler et al (2017).”
Sustainability guardrails for energy scenarios of the global energy transition (2018, methodology): “5–2 °C pathways, and BECCS would be a suitable method [52].”
On the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research (2022, methodology): “In this case, IAMs used for the IPCC are one step ahead, by publishing all assumptions and scenario variations for the used shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) [469]–[473] and providing a broad scientific literature”
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm (2017, result): “In several figures, we compare the IMAGE results with the range of outcomes by the implementation of the other IAMs, i.e. AIM (Fujimori et al., 2017), GCAM (Calvin et al., 2017), MESSAGEGLOBIOM (Fricko et al., 2017), REMIND-MagPIE (Kriegler et al., 2017), and WITCH (Emmerling et al., 2016).”