A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions

By Elmar Kriegler, J. Edmonds, StÃ©phane Hallegatte, K. Ebi, T. Kram, Keywan Riahi, H. Winkler, D. V. van Vuuren. Climatic Change, 2014

455 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The new scenario framework facilitates the coupling of multiple socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products using the representative concentration pathways. This will allow for improved assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Assumptions about climate policy play a major role in linking socioeconomic futures with forcing and climate outcomes. The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key policy attributes such as the goals, instruments and obstacles of mitigation and adaptation measures, and introduce an important additional dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. They can be used to improve the comparability of scenarios in the scenario matrix. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Global and Planetary Change, Management Science and Operations Research

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/5ef7a19fc6e0cd409b26b4122cbc2188c08f35e4

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Citations in the corpus

Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century (2018, unknown): “…utilized to design scenarios that combine socioeconomic and technological development, named the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), with future climate radiative forcing (RF) outcomes (RCPs) in a scenario matrix architecture (O’Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., 2014; van Vuuren et al., 2013).”
The Effects of Climate Change on GDP by Country and the Global Economic Gains From Complying With the Paris Climate Accord (2018, methodology): “These two sets of scenarios provide an integrated framework, or a scenario matrix architecture, to account for the various possible effects of global warming (van Vuuren et al., 2014).”
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century (2017, unknown): “Carbon prices and mitigation costs are highly model dependent (Kriegler et al., 2014b, 2016), and therefore the focus is on the relative change of these quantities between cells.”
Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050 (2020, result): “Our results complement the existing shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) that are used alongside the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to analyze the feedbacks between climate change and socioeconomic factors, such as world population growth, economic development, and technological progre”
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives (2017, unknown): “These Shared Climate Policy Assumptions (SPAs) are harmonized across modeling teams and consistently de ﬁ ned for each SSP (Kriegler et al., 2014).”
Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old (2014, unknown): “It is only by introducing mitigation policies ( a component of Shared Policy Assumptions or SPAs in the framework) that emission levels can be orientated towards the lower-end of the RCP range (Kriegler et al. 2013).”
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm (2017, background): “Clearly, the formulation of climate policies cannot be seen independent of the overall socio-economic developments (Kriegler et al., 2014a).”
Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changes (2020, background): “…matrix architecture are (1) the future climate radiative forcing level, characterized by the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and (2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (the SSPs) (O’Neill et al 2013, van Vuuren et al 2013, Kriegler et al 2014).”