Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm

By D. V. van Vuuren, Elke Stehfest, D. Gernaat, J. Doelman, M. Berg, M. Harmsen, H. D. Boer, L. Bouwman, V. Daioglou, O. Edelenbosch and 9 more. 2017

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Abstract This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementations of the SSPs (SSP2 and SSP3) and b) the SSP1 implementation of other integrated assessment models. The results show that a combination of resource efficiency, preferences for sustainable production methods and investment in human development could lead to a strong transition towards a more renewable energy supply, less land use and lower anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2100 than in 2010, even in the absence of explicit climate policies. At the same time, climate policy would still be needed to reduce emissions further, in order to reduce the projected increase of global mean temperature from 3 °C (SSP1 reference scenario) to 2 or 1.5 °C (in line with current policy targets). The SSP1 storyline could be a basis for further discussions on how climate policy can be combined with achieving other societal goals.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Environmental Engineering, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/a0fbe9dc0620139a8d4fd9ac11b910bec5a22e43

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Citations in the corpus

Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects (2018, methodology): “2 In this section we review publicly available data from multi-model inter comparison studies14 in order to understand the role of NETs in climate change mitigation (Riahi et al 2015, Kriegler et al 2015, GEA 2012, Riahi et al 2017, van Vuuren et al 2017a, Kriegler et al 2013b, 2016b).”
Societal Transformations in Models for Energy and Climate Policy: The Ambitious Next Step (2019, background): “For example, some studies have analyzed changes in behavior over time by varying previouslymentioned preference factors and quantifying their effects on vehicle adoption or modal shift.(44,69) Although it is difficult to quantify the effects of specific behavior policies, such as information campaig”
Future agricultural phosphorus demand according to the shared socioeconomic pathways (2018, methodology): “Using spatially explicit land use and crop P uptake (U) distributions generated by the IMAGE model (van Vuuren et al., 2017), the future P fertilizer (S) requirements can be estimated for each SSP. Note that the spatial distribution of future gridded U is based on the 2005 gridded spatial…”
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview (2017, background): “…to natural gas, or the upscaling of renewable energy) and demand-side measures geared toward energy conservation and ef ﬁ ciency improvements (Bauer et al., 2016; Calvin et al., 2016; Fricko et al., 2016; Fujimori et al., 2016; Kriegler et al., 2016; Popp et al., 2016; van Vuuren et al., 2016).”
The Shared Socio-economic Pathways : Trajectories for human development and global environmental change (2017, methodology): “Five individual papers describe the main dynamics of each SSP scenario (Calvin et al., 2017; Fricko et al., 2017; Fujimori et al., 2017; Kriegler et al., 2017; van Vuuren et al., 2017).”