Hindsight ≠ foresight: the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty*

By Baruch Fischhoff. 2003

827 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Pharmacology, Statistics and Probability

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/5a20997d5b2cbd6ee92532681e2d5c6a06ec4d99

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Citations in the corpus

Organizational Buyers' Adoption and Use of B2B Electronic Marketplaces: Efficiency- and Legitimacy-Oriented Perspectives (2007, background): “The dichotomous approach is considered to be problematic because the reconstruction of pre-adoption perception among adopters may not be reliable (Fischhoff 1975; O’Callaghan et al. 1993).”
HARKing: Hypothesizing After the Results are Known (2002, background): “Some of the work reviewed by Baron suggests that people often use a "win stay-lose change" strategy for hypothesis development and that as long as one's current hypothesis is not clearly contradicted by available evidence, one does not need or attempt to consider alternative, plausible hypotheses (a”
Reasons for, and consequences of, revealing personal secrets in close relationships: A longitudinal study (2005, background): “One possible explanation for this apparent disparity is the well-documented phenomenon of hindsight bias ( Fischhoff, 1975; Hoffrage & Pohl, 2003).”
Individual differences in adult decision-making competence. (2007, background): “However, researchers have studied many other judgment and decision-making skills, including consistency in judgments over time (Fischhoff, 1975), consistency in choice over time (Loewenstein & Elster, 1992), and resistance to biases arising from heuristics such as representativeness and availability”
The illusion of knowledge: When more information reduces accuracy and increases confidence (2007, background): “The illusion of knowledge is related to at least three other phenomena: the hindsight bias ( Fischhoff, 1975 ), the curse of knowledge (Camerer, Loewenstein, & Weber, 1989), and the illusion of transparency (Gilovich, Savitsky, & Medvec, 1998).”
Activating a mental simulation mind-set through generation of alternatives: Implications for debiasing in related and unrelated domains (2004, background): “Galinsky and Moskowitz (2000) had participants generate counterfactuals about a scenario in which it was easy to generate plausible alternatives that undid the outcome.”
Emotion and Reason in Everyday Risk Perception (2011, neutral): “8 perhaps salience due to the fact that some risks actually did materialize – similar to hindsight bias (Fischhoff, 1975).”
A review of studies on expert estimation of software development effort (2004, background): “…interpretation biases and the dynamics of software projects, e.g., • The ''hindsight bias'', e.g., the tendency to interpret cause–effect relationships as more obvious after it happen than before, see Fischhof (1975) and Stahlberg et al. (1995) for general human judgement studies on this topic.”
A Meta-Analysis of Research on Hindsight Bias (2004, result): “The notion that motivational processes are most active when outcomes are unexpected is consistent with previous findings that hindsight bias is strongest for events initially judged to be least plausible (Bryant & Brockway, 1997; Bryant & Guilbault, 2002; Fischhoff, 1975).”