A META‐ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTORS OF ADULT OFFENDER RECIDIVISM: WHAT WORKS!*

By P. Gendreau, Tracy Little, Claire Goggin. 1996

Meta-analytic techniques were used to determine which predictor domains and actuarial assessment instruments were the best predictors of adult offender recidivism. One hundred and thirty-one studies produced 1,141 correlations with recidivism. The strongest predictor domains were criminogenic needs, criminal history/history of antisocial behavior, social achievement, age/gender/race, and family factors. Less robust predictors included intellectual functioning, personal distress factors, and socioeconomic status in the family of origin. Dynamic predictor domains performed at least as well as the static domains. The LSI-R was identified as the most useful actuarial measure. Recommendations for developing sound assessment practices in corrections are provided.

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The accuracy, fairness, and limits of predicting recidivism (2018, positive): “The importance of these two criteria is consistent with the conclusions of two meta-analysis studies that set out to determine, in part, which criteria are most predictive of recidivism ( 9 , 10 ).”
Predicting outcome with the Level of Service Inventory-Revised: The importance of implementation integrity (2006, background): “In a meta-analytic examination of the utility and explanatory power of three different offender risk and need assessments, Gendreau, Little, and Goggin (1996) concluded that the LSI-R was the most powerful prediction instrument to date.”
The `Chicken and Egg' of Subjective and Social Factors in Desistance from Crime (2008, background): “Re-entry researchers are particularly interested in how best to predict the success or failure of prisoners prior to their release (see Gendreau et al. 1996) and what post-prison factors are most closely at Bobst Library, New York University on March 8, 2012euc.sagepub.comDownloaded from related to…”
CORRELATES OF VIOLENT POLITICAL EXTREMISM IN THE UNITED STATES (2018, background): “An influential meta-analysis of the predictors of adult offender recidivism by Gendreau et al. (1996) examined 131 prior studies and found criminal history to be among the strongest predictors of future criminal activity.”
Is the PCL-R Really the “Unparalleled” Measure of Offender Risk? (2002, background): “Concurrent with Salekin et al.’s (1996) review of the virtues of the PCL-R, a meta-analysis was published in Criminology by Gendreau, Little, and Goggin (1996), which, among other things, compared the predictive validities of a wide range of risk measures and personality scales.”
Validating the Principles of Effective Intervention: A Systematic Review of the Contributions of Meta-Analysis in the Field of Corrections (2009, unknown): “Several meta-analyses (eg, Andrews & Bonta, 2003 ; Bonta, Law, & Hanson, 1998 ; Dowden & Andrews, 1999b ; Gendreau, Andrews, Goggin, & Chanteloupe, 1992 ; Gendreau, Little, & Goggin, 1996 ; Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004 ; Lipsey & Derzon, 1998 ; Simourd & Andrews, 1994 ) have demonstrated th”
The Future of Criminal Attitudes Research and Practice (2002, background): “In an examination of the predictors of adult recidivism, Gendreau, Little, and Goggin (1996) found “criminogenic need” (which was a composite measure of criminal peers and criminal attitudes) to be the best predictor of recidivism, having a greater effect size than criminal history, social…”